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Penn State had a strange season last year. Their one scheduled trip to the Hoosier state ended up being a road game played in Landover, Maryland against Indiana that had a very pro-Penn State crowd. They have not played Purdue since 2008, but both the Boilermakers and Hoosiers will now be regular opponents in the new Leaders Division of the Big Ten. They finished 7-6 with a loss to Florida in the Outback Bowl, but the highlight of the season was Joe Paterno getting his 400th career win against Northwestern on November 6th.
The Nittany Lions beat the teams they were supposed to beat in 2010, but lost to the teams they were expected to lose to. There could be a big step forward in 2011 as they return 15 starters and eight seniors lead a defense that should be greatly improved.
The Offense
The Nittany Lions may have a decision to make at quarterback, but whomever wins that battle will have plenty of solid receivers to throw to. Derek Moye (53 receptions, 885 yards, 8 touchdowns) returns as one of the best receivers in the league and one that will test Josh Johnson and Ricardo Allen. Justin brown (33-452-1) and Devon Smith (27-363-1) also return, giving Penn State three of its top four receivers back from last season. Moye begins this season on the watch list for the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top receiver. Incoming recruit Bill Belton is also a four-star athlete that will play receiver. He brings speed and elusiveness to the position, plus he was a high school quarterback.
Who will be throwing to him has yet to be decided. Both Rob Bolden (112 completions, 1,360 yards, 5 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) and Matthew McGloin (118-1,548-14-9) play extensively last season. The deal will likely be settled long before we visit Happy Valley, but as for now it still appears wide open. My money is on McGloin, who finished last season as the starter and had the better TD-to-interception ratio. Don't count out Kevin Newsome, who also returns with some experience under his belt.
One critical area for Penn State is the running back situation, where Evan Royster is gone after rushing for running for more than 1,000 yards and six touchdowns a year ago. Silas Redd (437 yards, two touchdowns) comes back as the top returning rusher and the favorite to become the featured back. Stephfon Green (188-1) should also get plenty of carries in Royster's absence.
The offensive line was decent last year for Penn State, giving up only 12 sacks and 51 tackles for loss. It should be a senior-dominated group this year with Quinn Barham, Johnnie Troutman, Matt Stankewitch, and Chima Okoli all entering their senior seasons as projected starters. Guard John Urschel is the lone underclassman as a starter, and he is backed up by senior DeOn'tae Pannell. They are what you expect from a Big Ten line. They have solid size and experience.
The Defense
While the offense wasn't a problem last year, the defense gave up too much on the ground and quarterbacks completed 61% of their passes against the Nittany Lions. D'Anton Lynn is the top returning tackler with 75 stops and three interceptions as one of the better cornerbacks in the Big Ten. Stephon Morris returns with 39 tackles on the other side, giving Penn State two pretty good corners. Nick Sukay and Drew Astorino are both senior safeties that will anchor the secondary. Sukay had three interceptions a year ago, while Astorino had 70 tackles.
Generating the pass rush up front will be the responsibility of seniors Eric Latimore and Jack Crawford. Crawford had two sacks last season in limited action. Latimore appeared in only six games. Defensive tackles Devon Still and Jordan Hill are an effective wall that will prevent us from running up the middle. Still led the team with four sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and 39 overall tackles. Hill had 36 stops and two for loss. Those linebackers feature two more senior starters in Michael Mauti and Nate Stupar. Mauti had 67 tackles a year ago and got into the backfield for two sacks. Stupar also had two sacks with 73 tackles. The final starter is Gerald Hodges, a junior with 31 tackles in 2010.
Chaz Powell is a dangerous weapon in the return game after averaging 24 yards per kick return with a touchdown a year ago. Devon Smith was just as dangerous with over 12 yards per punt return.
The Schedule
Sep 3 Indiana State
Sep 10 Alabama
Sep 17 at Temple
Sep 24 Eastern Michigan
Oct 1 at Indiana
Oct 8 Iowa
Oct 15 Purdue
Oct 22 at Northwestern
Oct 29 Illinois
Nov 12 Nebraska
Nov 19 at Ohio State
Nov 26 at Wisconsin
Other than home game against Alabama the Nittany Lions couldn't have an easier non-conference schedule. The much improved Indiana State Sycamores head to Happy Valley to open the season, but Penn State will likely be heavily favored in that game, as well as their others against teams from the state of Indiana. Penn State should be 5-0 in the Big Ten before hosting Nebraska on November 12th, but their finishing kick is the toughest in the conference.
Penn State was low-profile in 2010. Losses to OSU, Iowa, Alabama, and MSU came as expected and save for the amazing NW comeback, little unknown came of the Nittany Lions 7-6 season, including the Florida bowl loss. We knew the QB situation would be unstable...it was. We knew the defense could hold its own because PSU defenses always hold their own with toughness, great talent, and a tried and true scheme...and they did for periods. We knew Penn State might not be able to score enough to win big games...they weren't. If pressed, I'm sure many would have guessed the defense would give up a few more points than usual because of the offense's ineptitude...308 points given up (the most by a PSU defense since 1983) proved this point emphatically.
The Debate Rages in Happy Valley: Bolden, McGloin, or...?
Because the run game hasn't been DOMINANT dominant for awhile, PSU absolutely NEEDS a quarterback who can avoid mistakes and keep the offense on the field. But who's it going to be? Would you feel comfortable sitting Rob Bolden, someone who may be a year away and wanted to leave Happy Valley? Does that sound like someone you want to sit behind "game manager" (read: weak armed) Matt McGloin? Where do Kevin Newsome and Paul Jones fit? The quarterback position, arguably the most important on the field, has truly taken a front seat.
Our Best Guess
I think Alabama tops the Nittany Lions for a second straight year, but a victory for the Nittany lions in Happy Valley would greatly help the conference's projection. It would also throw Penn State into the National Title chase before a three game stretch at the end derails it. JoePa had title runs ruined in 2008 and 2005 by last second losses to Iowa and Michigan, respectively, but is the third time the charm on the three year cycle? I think the final three games are too tough, but you never know.
8-4 Overall, 5-3 Big Ten
2011 Big Ten Football Preview: An Indiana Perspective On Penn State
John at Crimson Quarry, the SBNation home of the Indiana Hoosiers also recently published his preview of the Nittany Lions since Indiana shares a new Division with Penn State:
Jul 13 10:38a by Travis Miller