Butler and Valparaiso look to be battling for Horizon League supremacy and a ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
Feb 22, 2012 -
The Horizon League Tournament is starting to look like it will be an all-Indiana affair in the final. The Valparaiso Crusaders clinched the Horizon league regular season title and at least an NIT berth on Tuesday night, but it wasn't easy. Last place Loyola (IL) with a 1-15 Horizon League record took Valpo to overtime, but Matt Kenney's eight points in the extra session gave the Crusaders a 66-62 win.
That means the Horizon League Tournament will be hosted by Valparaiso, and the Crusaders need to win just two games on their home court to clinch the league's automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. One team that will be right there with them is the Butler Bulldogs. The March darlings of the last two years won their fifth straight Tuesday night, beating Illinois-Chicago 69-44. Butler now needs a win at Valparaiso on Friday night (in a game that means nothing to the Crusaders) and a loss by Detroit in one of its last two games to clinch the No. 2 seed in the Horizon Tourney.
The top two seeds receive a by to the conference semi-finals, and the highest remaining seed would host the conference championship game. That means a Butler-Valpo final would be for an NCAA bid, while Butler facing anyone else would come at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Valparaiso also now has the fallback of an automatic bid to the NIT if they come up short in the league tourney.
As for the other teams from the state of Indiana (plus Louisville) not much has changed. Indiana, Notre Dame, and Louisville are virtual locks, while Purdue remains on the Bubble. Evansville suffered a critical blow on Tuesday as well.
NCAA Locks:
Indiana Hoosiers (20-7, 8-7 Big Ten) - Even if Indiana completely collapsed and lost its final four regular season games plus opening Big Ten Tournament game the Hoosiers should be fine. Wins over Notre Dame, Kentucky, Ohio State, and Michigan are as good as they come, though losses at Iowa and Nebraska are stinging. Indiana has a mid-week tune up game against North Carolina Central before going to Minneapolis to get revenge on the Golden Gophers. Minnesota is the only team to beat Indiana at Assembly Hall this year, and at 5-9 in the Big Ten they desperately need a win Wednesday against Michigan State and Sunday against Indiana. After losing four straight, their bubble is probably popped. in truth, the only thing that would hurt Indiana is an awful loss Wednesday to North Carolina Central.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (19-8, 11-3 Big East) - The Fighting Irish are white hot, and can still dream of an early round placement close to home in Louisville or Columbus. Eight straight wins in the Big East is impressive, especially since two of the victories came over the other top two teams in the league. Ironically, Syracuse and Kentucky, the top two teams in the country, suffered their lone losses to Indiana schools on the road.
Louisville Cardinals (21-6, 9-5 Big East) - Once again, I am grouping the Cards in regionally because the editors say I should, but this is still a solid NCAA Tournament team. They are 7-1 in their last eight with the lone loss coming to the number one team in college basketball by a point. Louisville has only one loss to a team not in the top 20 at the moment, and that was an ugly 31 point loss at Providence.
On the Bubble:
Purdue Boilermakers (17-10, 7-7 Big Ten) - For a half on Sunday it looked like Purdue was going to get a marquee win. It led Michigan State at halftime, but "bad Purdue", as I call them, showed up for another stretch of play. The Boilermakers started the second half 1 of 21 from the field, and the Spartans prevailed.
The math for Purdue should still be pretty simple for them to get into the field, mostly because the other Bubble teams around them keep losing. Northwestern and Miami, two of the better teams Purdue has beaten, lost on Tuesday night in dramatic fashion, damaging Purdue's RPI. As long as Purdue beats Nebraska and Penn State in its final two home games it should be okay. Pairing those victories with an upset on the road of Michigan or Indiana would lock them in. A 2-2 record in those four likely puts Purdue in the 6/11 game of the Big Ten Tournament, where they would face Nebraska or Illinois again. As long as Purdue gets that game they would have 20 wins and probably be okay, with a quarterfinal win over one of the conference's top four locking them in.
The only troubling fact about Purdue losing in the Big Ten Tourney quarterfinals after a 2-2 finish would be its mark against the conference elite. The Boilermakers would then be 10-1 against the bottom six teams, but 0-9 against the top 5. Still, this is a team that controls its own destiny and does not have to worry about what other teams are doing in order to get into the NCAA Tournament. That is a good place to be, but it will change if they fall against Nebraska Wednesday.
Conference Tournament Contenders:
Butler Bulldogs (18-12, 12-6 Horizon) and Valparaiso Crusaders (20-10, 13-4) - Both of these teams are favored to meet for the Horizon league's automatic bid and the loser is likely headed to the NIT. Both teams will play somewhere in the postseason for sure, as the NIT would jump at a name brand in Butler. Unfortunately, neither has a shot at an NCAA at large bid. Valpo has a 77-71 overtime win at Butler on December 3rd, but we'll learn a lot more about both when they meet Friday night at Valparaiso.
Evansville Aces (14-14, 8-9 Missouri Valley) - Once again, the Aces suffered an agonizing loss, falling 93-92 in overtime at Creighton Tuesday night after having a big lead for most of the second half. That brings Evansville's total to eight losses this year by two points or less or in overtime. Six of those came in the conference too. At sixth place in the MVC, they would avoid a first day game at Arch Madness, and that is huge. This team has beaten Creighton once, came within a point of Wichita State, and won at Missouri State and home against Illinois State. They are more than capable of getting hot and stealing the MVC's auto-bid, especially with Creighton and Wichita State as strong at large candidates. Evansville stealing the auto-bid would also damage a very weak bubble, as Creighton and Wichita State are likely in the tournament regardless.
Conference Tournament Longshots:
Indiana St. Sycamores (16-12, 7-9 MVC) - Unlike Evansville, Indiana State is probably going to have to win four games in four days to steal the auto-bid, and that is likely too much.
Ball St. Cardinals (13-12, 4-8 MAC) - The MAC is heavily skewed to the East Division, where fifth place Bowling Green would lead the West Division by a game. The Cards did finally break a seven game losing streak with a BracketBusters win over Southern Illinois, and a strong finish could see them win the very weak West.
IUPUI Jaguars (13-16, 6-10 Summit) - The Jags have seen some great performances by Alex Young this year, who is one of the top 10 scorers in the nation, but they don't have a lot else. Still, they have won five of six and the only loss was to Oral Roberts (the Summit leader at 25-5, 16-1), in overtime by two. They finish at North Dakota State and South Dakota State this week.
IPFW Mastodons (10-17, 4-12 Summit) - IPFW is fighting South Dakota and UMKC for the last spot in the Summit League Tournament. All three teams are 4-12 in the league, and IPFW plays both this week to finish the year. IPFW split with both at home, but has now lost seven in a row and 11 of 12.
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