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Feb 6, 2012 -
Before getting into another look at each team from the state of Indiana's chances at the NCAA Tournament I wanted to leave a note about Louisville. There were some outlets that picked up last week's story and questioned the inclusion of Louisville in this. Yes, I am well aware that Louisville is not in the state of Indiana. We're requested to cover them, however, as a regional sports site, so I try to give them a at least passing mention here even though they aren't a team from Indiana. What the editor says, goes in that regard.
After another week of basketball two of the teams in the area greatly improved their profiles. Indiana's win at Purdue was impressive in person, as IU put everything together in a very hostile road environment and, in my opinion, out Purdue'd Purdue:
Basically, they did everything Purdue should be doing, and they were the better, tougher team tonight. Period. Yes, the officiating was questionable at best for most of the night, but that still doesn't change that Indiana was the better team. They earned this win by doing exactly what they needed to do to beat Purdue, and Purdue did itself no favors by once again having a disjointed offense that couldn't hit open jump shots and by failing to make plays defensively. It was odd to see the team in red playing the style of basketball we're used to playing, but that's what happened. It's also incredibly frustrating when you're sitting there in person.
It was impressive enough for even this die hard Purdue fan to admit that IU is returning to the NCAA Tournament unless they have a complete and inexplicable collapse down the stretch.
NCAA Tournament Locks:
Indiana Hoosiers - 18-6, 6-6 Big Ten - The Hoosiers are now playing for a seed, as they would have to completely fall apart to avoid 20 wins overall and at least nine in the conference. The win over Kentucky is one of the best in the country, so now Indiana is playing to get a good seed close to home, possibly in Louisville, for the opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
As for the Big Ten finish, The Hoosiers should be able to beat Illinois, Northwestern, and earn a sweep over Purdue to close out the home season. A road win at Iowa would also be nice. Assuming a win over t North Carolina Central in their final non-conference game, Indiana should finish at least 23-8 and earn a top 4 seed somewhere.
Louisville Cardinals - 19-5, 7-4 Big East - Louisville cannot play at home as a second and third round host, so that Cardinals would probably be a preferred seed in either Nashville or Columbus. With Monday night's win over Connecticut they are well on their way toward winning that protected seed. Joe Lunardi still has the Cards as a No. 6 seed, but they have plenty of opportunity to improve their profile. They still have two games against No. 2 Syracuse to get a huge win.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 15-8, 7-3 Big East - This weekend's impressive win over Marquette at home did it for me. The Irish simply have too many likely wins left to make me think they won't get to 20 wins. That would also give them 12 victories against the Big East, which is more than enough. The RPI I still a little weak at 56, but the Irish now have three top 25 RPI wins (Syracuse, Marquette, and Connecticut). Their win over Syracuse is actually better than Indiana's over Kentucky. Losses to Georgia and Rutgers aren't good, but the Syracuse win outdoes them.
On the Bubble:
Purdue Boilermakers - 15-8, 5-5 Big Ten - Every Monday I go over Purdue's NCAA profile, and it looks about as bubblicious as you can imagine. A definite negative is that two of Purdue's non-conference losses, Alabama and Xavier, come against teams they may be on the Bubble with on Selection Sunday. Purdue's home loss to Indiana, which was a four point game and Purdue with possession with two and a half minutes left, ballooned to a 17 point loss because of fouling at the end. It also undermined Purdue's confidence with their third loss in the last four home games after winning 26 in a row at Mackey Arena.
Purdue is a dead even 5-5 against the top 50 RPI teams. Their two best non-conference wins have coincidentally come against top 50 teams that have upset Duke (Miami and Temple). The Hurricanes' upset of Duke on Sunday did wonders for Purdue's profile, as the Boilermakers defeated Miami by 11 in December. Many of Purdue's better wins have come away from home too (at Minnesota, at Northwestern, Temple and Iona on a neutral floor), which helps a little.
Purdue still has two ugly losses to Butler and Penn State (by 20!) dragging their profile down. In both the Xavier and Butler losses Purdue blew a double-digit second half lead, while against Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana Purdue had long stretches of cold shooting and stagnant offense.
For Purdue to feel remotely safe they likely need to win four of their final eight games. Tuesday's game at Ohio State is a very tall order, but if Purdue can beat Northwestern at home and win at Illinois in addition to wins over Nebraska and Penn State at home that would give Purdue some excellent cards. That scenario would have the Boilers with season sweeps of Illinois, Northwestern, and Iowa as well as a split with Penn State and single game wins over Minnesota and Nebraska. Going 9-1 against those foes would establish the Boilers dominant against the bottom half of the league, which might be enough.
Winning their home game against Michigan State on February 19th would be very beneficial as well. Road trips to Michigan (February 25) and Indiana (March 4) give the Boilers a rematch against teams that they played tough at Mackey, but ultimately couldn't finish against.
Conference Tournament or Bust:
Valparaiso Crusaders - 17-8, 10-3 Horizon League - Thursday night is a huge game for Valpo, as they travel to Cleveland State in Horizon League play with first place on the line. A win would tie the teams in the loss column, but it would give Valparaiso a critical season sweep of the Vikings. That would put the Horizon League tourney on Valpo's floor and they would need only two home wins to go the NCAAs as long as they win the regular season title. A regular season title also assures an NIT berth at worst.
If Valparaiso can sweep this weekend's road trip to Cleveland State and Youngstown State they only have remaining conference games against Loyola (IL) and Illinois-Chicago (thee two worst teams in the league) and a home game against Butler.
Indiana St. Sycamores - 14-10, 5-8 MVC - The Trees had won three in a row before dropping a game against Wichita State, but the core of the team that had the surprising run at Arch Madness is still there. Unfortunately, at 5-8 in the conference they'll likely have to play on the first day in St. Louis.
Evansville Aces - 11-12, 6-7 MVC - Last year's Indiana State could be this year's Evansville in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. The Aces have faired better against the league overall than ISU, and Colt Ryan continues to be one of the nation's leading scorers. Once again, close games have been their M.O. Evansville lost to Southern Illinois by a point in their last game. That makes five of their seven losses in league play by two points or less or in overtime. The Aces are right there, and if they can put it together in St. Louis don't be surprised if they steal the auto-bid.
Ball St. Cardinals - 12-9, 4-5 MAC West - The Cards have lost four games in a row and have missed on a chance to seize control of the MAC West. Fortunately, no one else has done so, either. Eastern Michigan leads the division at just 5-4 in the league. The MAC's power base is strongly in the east this year, but a divisional crown could give Ball State a favorable seed in the conference tournament to steal a bid.
Longshots:
Butler Bulldogs - 13-12, 7-6 Horizon - I've downgraded Butler this week because they can't gain any traction in a crowded Horizon League. Their loss at home to Detroit was a pretty bad one, and it could get worse this week with trips to Youngstown State and Cleveland State. Butler will have a very long road in the Horizon League Tournament as opposed to the favorable placement at home that they are used to.
IPFW Mastodons - 10-13, 4-10 Summit - The ‘dons lost the alphabet bowl this past week against IUPUI, giving them seven losses in their last eight games.
IUPUI Jaguars - 10-15, 4-9 Summit - The Jaguars have now won two in a row, but they go to league leader Oral Roberts on Thursday night as a test to see how much they have improved. Alex Young continues to be one of the nation's better scorers at 20.4 points per game.
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