2011 NFL Week Five: Colts Fall To 0-5, Lose To Chiefs 28-24

All the good things the Colts did in the first half completely went by the wayside in the second, where they were outplayed and outcoached on their way to a 28-24 loss to the Chiefs, after jumping out to a 17-0 lead. The Offense only had 69 yards in the second half, including 39 on their final drive which ended with an incompletion on 4th down at the KC 42 yard line.

The Chiefs did basically whatever they wanted Offensively after the first quarter and a half, where they scored TD drives of 70, 80, 93, and 54 yards, all Matt Cassel TD passes. They also ran the ball more than effectively, shredding the tired Colts defense. Once again we saw very few adjustments once the Chiefs started moving the ball, and we continually saw Jacob Lacey get abused by Dwayne Bowe, a Pro Bowl WR, somebody Lacey never should be covering one-on-one. But this has become par for the course for these Colts, who are now the first team to get to 0-5 on the season.

Joseph Addai injured his hamstring in the second quarter, and Jerraud Powers also injured his hamstring in the fourth quarter. Powers’s injury came at the wrong time, as the Chiefs went right after replacement Chris Rucker, and Steve Breaston scored the game-winning touchdown. I didn’t see any other injuries, but we’ll find out more tomorrow.

I’m trying hard to find positives coming out of today’s game, but there aren’t many. The Colts didn’t turn the ball over, but forced no turnovers, and we saw yet another week where neither the Offense or Defense performed in the second half. The long season just got longer.

Phil Wilson of the Indianapolis Star tweets that Anthony Castonzo, Ryan Diem, Drake Nevis, Kevin Thomas, Mike Tepper, Kerry Collins, and Peyton Manning are OUT. Jeff Linkenbach will start at left tackle while newly signed linemen Quinn Ojinnaka will start at right.

This means that all top three picks for the Indianapolis Colts in the 2011 NFL Draft will not play today. In addition, the third round pick in 2010 (Thomas) is a healthy scratch for the second straight week.

Today’s starting right tackle, Quinn Ojinnaka, was signed just last week. Tepper, who was signed off the practice squad last week, is out for unknown reasons. Tepper played Monday night in last week’s loss to the Buccaneers.

Curtis Painter will get his second straight start at quarterback, and his back-up will be Dan Orlovsky.

The Indy Star is also reporting that the Lucas Oil Stadium roof and end zone window are currently open and are expected to remain open for today’s game.

Six teams have the week off in Week Five, but a couple division match-ups highlight the week. Here's your full schedule of games, lines and picks for Week 5:

Saints (-6.5) at Panthers, 1:00 PM, FOX: The Panthers have played well despite their 1-3 start, and could see some success against their NFC South rival. However, Drew Brees and the Saints have been nearly unstoppable offensively so far in 2011, and look for them to have another big day in Charlotte. Saints 34, Panthers 21

Eagles (-3) at Bills, 1:00 PM, FOX: I think most people would have had the records flipped if you had asked them before the season, but the 1-3 Eagles, losers of three straight, head to Buffalo as favorites against the 3-1 Bills, who suffered their first loss of the season last week in Cincinnati. The Eagles defense seems too talented to continue to struggle as much as it has, and look for Michael Vick to have a big day throwing the ball. Eagles 28, Bills 20

Seahawks (+10) at Giants, 1:00 PM, FOX: The Giants needed a huge fourth quarter from Eli Manning last week to win in Arizona, while the Seahawks haven't looked good at all this season. This is usually where you see a let down game from the Giants, but they've dealt with so many injuries already in the young season, they'll easily win at home against a bad Seahawks team. Giants 24, Seahawks 10

Bengals (-1) at Jaguars, 1:00 PM, CBS: This line has moved four points from where it started, as the Bengals defense has been very good so far this season, and the Jaguar offense, led by rookie Blaine Gabbert, has only scored two TDs in two weeks, one of which a hail mary play at the end of a half. Look for the Bengals to move to 3-2 with a road victory in Jacksonville. Bengals 24, Jaguars 20

Chiefs (+3) at Colts, 1:00 PM, CBS: Two of the worst teams play in a "Andrew Luck Bowl", where the loser has an inside track at the #1 pick in the NFL draft. There's no doubt the players won't be thinking this way, and the Colts have shown enough of a pulse that they should be able to take care of business at home against a Chiefs team that got their first victory of the season last week against the Vikings. Colts 27, Chiefs 21

Titans (+3.5) at Steelers, 1:00 PM, CBS: One of these lines that makes you scratch your head, as the Titans have looked much better than the Steelers this season, especially with their common opponent, the Ravens. Pittsburgh returns home after two straight road games, including a loss in Houston last week. A banged up Ben Roethlisberger, and an injured Rashard Mendenhall and James Harrison mean the Titans will leave the Steel City 4-1. Titans 27, Steelers 25

Cardinals (+3) at Vikings, 1:00 PM, FOX: The Cardinals were the victim of some bad luck last week, after an apparent Victor Cruz fumble was not called, giving the Giants a chance to win the ball game in the final three minutes. This week they head to Minnesota, where the Vikings are winless, even though they've held double-digit halftime leads in three of their first four games. Look for another winless team to notch their first victory. Vikings 22, Cardinals 19

Raiders (+5) at Texans, 1:00 PM, CBS: This game will be played with heavy hearts after the passing of Raiders' owner Al Davis, a true pioneer of the NFL and its most eccentric owner. On the field, the Texans will be without Andre Johnson, and the Raiders will try to pound the ball with the NFL's leader in rushing yards, Darren McFadden, who has 468 yards already this season. A late field goal wins it for the home team. Texans 29, Raiders 26

Buccaneers (+3) at 49ers, 4:05 PM, FOX: Tampa has won three straight, and the 49ers won back-to-back games in the Eastern time zone, including a win in Philadelphia over the Eagles. Expect a high scoring affair from both sides in one of the better games of the day. Buccaneers 33, 49ers 29

Jets (+8) at Patriots, 4:15 PM, CBS: Last season in the playoffs, the Jets went into Foxboro and beat the Patriots, shutting down Tom Brady. Earlier in the season, however, it was a 45-3 beatdown by the Patriots, where the Jets couldn't seem to do anything right. The Jets offense has been awful the last two weeks, so they must take advantage of a Patriots defense that is giving up 478 yards per game, 369 of those through the air. The Jets will look better, but New England doesn't lose at home. Patriots 28, Jets 21

Chargers (-4) at Broncos, 4:15 PM, CBS: The Chargers have not looked great this season, but for a team that always seems to struggle mightily in the early stages of the season, a 3-1 start is pretty good. They head to division rival Denver, who were blown out at Lambeau Field last week by the Packers. Their offense has yet to get on track, and the calls for Tim Tebow will be out in full force by the end of the day. Chargers 31, Broncos 13

Packers (-6) at Falcons, 8:25 PM, NBC: One of the two remaining unbeatens heads on the road to one of the toughest places to play, although they blew out the Falcons last year in the playoffs. The Packers offense looks to be a well-oiled machine at this point, with Aaron Rodgers making even the hardest throws look easy. The Falcons return home after starting off the season with three road games out of their first four games, and they always seem to play better inside the Georgia Dome. However, the Packers are just too good right now, and they repeat the 2010 playoff win. Packers 31, Falcons 20

Bears (+6) at Lions, Monday 8:30 PM, ESPN: The Lions are playing their first primetime game in a decade, and with good reason, as they are 4-0 on the season, making furious comebacks nearly every week. They were down 20 to the Vikings at halftime and won in OT, and were down 27-3 in Dallas last week before storming back to win 34-30, thanks to a pair of Calvin Johnson touchdowns. The scoring won't nearly be as high this week, but look for the Lions to run their record to 5-0, beating the Bears on Monday night. Lions 17, Bears 12

The Colts will look to notch their first win of the season when they welcome in the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday afternoon to Lucas Oil Stadium. You'd never know by their combined 1-7 record that these two teams both won their respective divisions in 2010, both finishing at 10-6. They also met in Week 5 last year, a 19-9 Colts win that statistically, wasn't that close. The Colts dominated the Chiefs on both sides of the ball, but couldn't find the end zone, having to settle for four Adam Vinatieri field goals. The Colts moved the ball between the 20s practically at will, and couldn't figure out the last 20 yards until the fourth quarter.

The Colts have had great success with the Chiefs over the past 20 years, winning 10 of those 11 meetings, including three playoff wins. The only loss came in 2004, a 45-35 Chiefs win that saw almost 1100 combined yards, five Peyton Manning TD passes, and Priest Holmes having a huge fantasy day for me (40 points). I remember those days when the defense was so bad even when Manning was unstoppable, you only had to stop him once to build a lead. I'd like that Manning back, please...

This year's matchup between the Colts and the Chiefs looks to be a battle for draft position, thanks to major injuries to both teams. The Chiefs have lost both their best Defensive player (Safety Eric Barry) and their best offensive player (Jamaal Charles) for the season, along with their starting TE Tony Moeaki, who hauled in 47 catches and three TDs a year ago as a rookie. The Colts are their usual M*A*S*H unit, with 11 players showing up on the first injury report Wednesday. The good news is we may see Fili Moala and Ernie Sims back this week, a welcome sign indeed to an injury-ravaged team.

Adjusted Statistical Comparison for the Colts and Chiefs:

Some keys to the game:

• These numbers are not pretty by any stretch of the imagination. Yeesh. Overall I have the Colts at #30 in the league, and the Chiefs at #31, so at least they match-up fairly well, even if they are at the bottom of the league.
• The Chiefs defense looks like it could create turnovers, and Curtis Painter, who all signs point to him starting again, has shown a bad habit of fumbling when sacked. This task gets much, much tougher if OT Anthony Castonzo can't play (looking likely), meaning Jeff Linkenbach will be trying to slow down one of the best pass rusher in the NFL, Tamba Hali. Linkenbach struggled with the Buccaneers DEs last week, so Painter will have to protect the football, and be on the lookout for those pass rushers.
• The Colts might be able to sustain a few more drives longer than 5 plays this week, as the Chiefs have had difficulty getting teams off the field so far this season. My only concern is Tampa Bay wasn't much better than the Chiefs are, and they still couldn't move it effectively, so it might be wishful thinking. A couple long, touchdown drives would be nice. I'm sick of seeing long drives end up with #4 trotting out onto the field.
• Don't expect any long runs by the Colts either, but expect them to gain good chunks of yards when needed. The Chiefs RB Success Rate isn't very good, but they have a low Yards per Carry, which means they give up a lot of those third/fourth and short conversions. Time for Delone Carter to show his stuff.
• On the flip side the Colts defense looks to be the best unit of the four playing Sunday, which is a rare feat. Playing at home will also help, as they seem to play better inside Lucas Oil Stadium. The Chiefs have really struggled putting drives together, so it will be imperative for the Colts to get them off the field as quickly as possible.
  
• The Chiefs offense is actually worse on third/fourth down than the Colts are, which is also amazing to think about. If we start seeing third down conversions by Matt Cassel, it's going to be tough for the Colts to win.
• The Chiefs running game is very boom or bust, witnessed by their very high Yards per Carry, but low Success Rate, which plays right into the Colts hands. Last week against Tampa, they bottled up Buccaneer RBs, but allowed a couple long 30+ yard runs that skew the YPC stat. The Colts can't let Thomas Jones or Dexter McCluster break long runs on them.
• Neither team is really adept at passing the ball, and neither team is really adept at stopping the pass, so whichever team can have some success through the air will probably win. I can't tell you who it is going to be, however.

The Winning Stats Predictor has the Colts as six-point favorites, which I think it too high. I think the Offensive Line injuries, especially to Castonzo, really hurt the Colts chances, especially if they can't run the football, which they couldn't do after Castonzo left the game Monday night. I think the Colts will look to hit a big play or two on a Chiefs blitz (because they'll be doing it a lot), and it will be enough for the Colts defense to hang on at the end. If the Colts can't win this one, I'm not sure I'll be able to find another win on the schedule. The Colts should be the better team on the field Sunday, but they have to prove it on the scoreboard.

Colts 24, Chiefs 20