NFL Playoffs 2012 - Road To Indianapolis: Saints Vs. 49ers NFC Divisional Round Preview

By Matt Grecco - Associate Editor

Follow @sbnationindiana on Twitter, and Like SB Nation Indiana on Facebook.

Jan 13, 2012 - It will be the classic Offense vs. Defense matchup in San Francisco Saturday afternoon when the Saints travel to the Bay Area to take on the 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round. The Saints blew out the Lions at home last weekend 45-28, earning their spot in this game. The teams had identical 13-3 records during the regular season, but the 49ers got the bye, and the home game this weekend, thanks to a tie-breaker.

The 49ers blew away their competition in the NFC West, clinching a playoff spot with five weeks left in the season. They come into the playoffs on a three game winning streak, after losing two of three games starting with Thanksgiving night in Baltimore. They are returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2002, tying the longest stretch in franchise history, since the merger, for missing the playoffs. Things have been so bad that this is actually the first year they had a winning season since 2002 as well. They have not advanced past the Divisional Round since 1997, but haven't lost a playoff game at home since 1995, four straight wins.

One of the biggest aspects of Saturday's game is the fact that the Saints have to play outdoors, something they've done only once since a Week 6 loss to the Buccaneers. While the perception is that the Saints are much worse away from the Superdome, the drop-off isn't as exaggerated as some make it out to be. The Saints are looking for their first road playoff win in franchise history, as they are 0-4 all-time, while they've won their last 5 home playoff games.

The Saints and 49ers have never played in the playoffs before, but ever since divisions re-aligned in 2002, the Saints are a perfect 6-0 against the 49ers. Their last matchup came in Week 2 of last season, a 25-22 Saints win in San Francisco. Before that they were division rivals, so they played twice a year, with the 49ers winning a majority of those games. It's safe to say, however, that the Saints won't have to deal with Joe Montana or Jerry Rice like they did then, however.

How do these two teams match up statistically? Here is a chart of stats, used over at Stampede Blue, to help find some key areas to watch Saturday afternoon. Please keep in mind these numbers have been adjusted for opponents faced, which gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison of the teams, and the stats are ordered from top to bottom in importance:

Statistic	Saints				49ers
	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	78.7%	3	70.5%	23	66.2%	23	63.3%	3
ANPY/A	7.619	3	5.926	25	6.141	11	4.701	7
Turnovers	1.22	3	1.20	32	0.83	1	2.45	2
Yds/Drive	41.20	1	31.72	26	25.89	21	25.45	5
ToP/Drive	2:58.0	4	2:34.0	10	2:49.0	9	2:30.0	5
Yds/Play	6.274	1	5.608	26	4.847	21	4.831	6
First Downs/Drive	2.32	1	1.79	22	1.49	20	1.40	4
3rd/4th Down	56.2%	1	32.3%	2	32.8%	29	37.2%	12
Avg Start Pos	31.0	15	29.3	6	35.9	1	27.1	1
3 and Outs	2.35	1	3.44	22	4.11	22	4.76	6
RZ Eff	70.0%	8	76.0%	31	63.3%	22	51.6%	2
Plays/Drive	6.451	1	5.605	19	5.362	21	5.223	7
Penalty Yds / Play	0.740	12	0.858	11	0.979	26	0.795	21
RB Success	53.2%	1	49.1%	25	41.8%	26	37.3%	1
Yds/Carry	4.56	6	4.76	31	3.93	20	3.61	3
Net Punting Average	44.83	1	38.34	16	44.48	2	37.57	8
Overall	1		21		14		2

Some keys to the game:

• Let's start with the matchup everyone wants to see, and that's when the Saints have the ball. Starting Field Position means more in the playoffs than it does during the regular season, and the Saints will have to drive the ball down the field each and every time if they want to score, as the 49ers are best in the league at opponent's field position. Distance usually doesn't cause much trouble for the Saints, but it just means there are more opportunities for a mistake to happen.
• Both teams are extremely good, so it's difficult to find one area where one team has a significant advantage over the other. Key to almost any game is how well the Offense can pass the ball, and I like to use Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt for that. The 49ers are quite good when compared to the rest of the league, but it's not at the same level as all their other stats. If they allow Drew Brees to be Drew Brees, it will be a long night.
• Red Zone Efficiency will also be very important. Just as the 49ers Defense isn't quite as good defending the pass as everything else, the Saints Offense isn't quite at the same level when they get inside the 20, although they are still very good. Lance Moore was a guy Brees liked to look for in tight spaces, but he missed the entire week of practice this week, meaning he's most likely out on Saturday. That means Brees will "only" have Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and Darren Sproles to throw to. Decimated, for sure.
• When the 49ers have the ball, don't expect any turnovers, but if they happen, the Saints will be in really good position to win. The 49ers are the best team in the NFL in taking care of the football, while the Saints are the worst team at causing turnovers.
  
• Where the Saints will have a huge advantage will be on 3rd/4th Downs, as the Saints are 2nd best in the league, while the 49ers really struggle, ranking just 29th. If the percentages hold to form, you can expect the 49ers to convert just 1/3 of these plays. If the 49ers can avoid these situations, they'll be in good position to win.
• Even though Frank Gore gets a lot of attention, and is the focal point of the 49ers offense, the running game for the 49ers didn't have a stellar season, ranking just 26th in RB Success Rate. Thankfully the Saints haven't been much better defensively, so we should still expect a lot of Gore and Kendall Hunter throughout the game.

This game looks to be a pretty even match-up, with only two huge differences, one positive for each team. The old adage, especially in the playoffs, is "Defense Wins Championships", and that will certainly be put to the test Saturday. Unfortunately for the 49ers, I think the Saints will have just enough firepower to go on the road and win, kicking a field goal in the final seconds to win. This should be a great way to kickoff the weekend.

SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Saints 27, 49ers 26

Read More: 2012 nfl playoffs, 2012 nfl divisional round, Drew Brees (QB - NOS), Marques Colston (WR - NOS), Lance Moore (WR - NOS), Frank Gore (RB - SFX), Darren Sproles (RB - NOS), Jimmy Graham (TE - NOS), Kendall Hunter (RB - SFX), New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers, Jan 14, 2012 4:30 PM EST

Follow @sbnationindiana on Twitter, and Like SB Nation Indiana on Facebook.

Tweet 0 comments