NFL Playoffs 2012 - Road To Indianapolis: 49ers Win Thriller, Patriots Blow Out Broncos

The defending Super Bowl Champions will be the last team to make their Playoff debut in 2012 when the Green Bay Packers host the New York Giants Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. A winter storm ripped through the Midwest earlier this week, and temperatures will be in the teens at kickoff, and only getting colder. It won't be quite as cold as the last time these two teams met in the playoffs, a 23-20 OT win for the Giants four years ago, which ended up being Brett Favre's last game in a Packers uniform, in a game that was below zero at kickoff.

The Packers were a league-best 15-1 on the season, with their lone loss on the road at Kansas City in Week 15. They even won in Week 17 against another playoff team, the Lions, without the services of QB Aaron Rodgers, CB Charles Woodson, and LB Clay Matthews, who all sat out to rest for the Playoffs. Matt Flynn came in for Rodgers and set the franchise record for TD passes in a game, six, in the 45-41 win. Rodgers looks to be the runaway MVP of the league, as the offense looked unstoppable in multiple games this season.

The Giants Defense played exceptionally well last week in their 24-2 win over the Falcons, pitching a shutout against one of the better offenses in the league. QB Eli Manning had a big day throwing to WR Hakeem Nicks, as Nicks had 115 yards receiving and a pair of TDs, while Manning had 277 yards passing and three scores. It was the first home win in the Playoffs for the Giants since 2000.

The Packers and Giants played a great game earlier this season, a 38-35 Packers win that went back and forth the entire game, saw a game-tying TD and two-point conversion by the Giants with just under a minute remaining, but it was plenty of time for Rodgers and the Packers, who were in field goal range in two plays and just 14 seconds, and Mason Crosby finished it off with a 31 yard field goal as time expired. It was the Giants fourth straight loss at the time, pushing them to 6-6 and out of the playoff picture. New York bounced back, winning three of their last four games, to win the NFC East.

How do these two teams match up statistically? Here is a chart of stats, used over at Stampede Blue, to help find some key areas to watch Sunday afternoon. Please keep in mind these numbers have been adjusted for opponents faced, which gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison of the teams, and the stats are ordered from top to bottom in importance:

Some keys to the game:

• Look how scary good that Packers offense is. They are in the top 6 of the NFL in the 13 most important stats shown here, an amazing feat. It's obviously why they finished 15-1.
• The Giants defense has let teams drive the ball on them all season, ranking below league average in most of the drive-related stats. They'll need to find a way to get this potent Packers Offense off the field if they expect to pull off the upset.
  
• One area the Giants Defense has been really good at this season is forcing turnovers, ranking 6th in the league. They did get an interception of Rodgers deep in Packers territory in the first game, leading to a Brandon Jacobs TD. The Packers are not prone to many turnovers, but the Giants will probably need a couple to win.
• The Packers don't run the ball well at all, but it really doesn't matter to them, as they hardly try to establish any kind of run game. It's more of a bonus when they get big plays from James Starks or Ryan Grant, so the Giants will need to stop them, just as all other Packers opponents have done this season.
• The Packers defense, however, has been pretty bad at everything except forcing turnovers, where they are best in the league. It's a case where they know their offense is so good, they take those risks for the big play, and if they get burned, no big deal. The Giants turned it over twice in the first meeting, one of which was returned for a touchdown by Clay Matthews. It's tough to outscore the Packers offense, let alone when the defense scores too.
• Eli Manning should be able to have another big day throwing the ball, as the Packers are slightly below average in Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt, and they aren't any worse thanks in large part to all the interceptions.
  
• The Giants are not very good at Yards per Carry, ranking dead last, despite the big names of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. The Packers really struggled in the first game in stopping the run, so they'll have their work cut out for them.

This has all the makings for a shootout, much like the first meeting. The weather may play a factor if the wind picks up, since both teams want to air it out, but the cold shouldn't be too much of a factor. I think the game comes down to who has the ball last, and it'll be the Packers by a field goal, just like the first time around.

SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Packers 31, Giants 28

For the fourth consecutive season, the Baltimore Ravens have made the Divisional Round in the NFL Playoffs, only this season, for the first time since the 2006 season, they'll get to play a game at home. Sunday afternoon, they'll be hosting the Houston Texans, who were victorious in their first ever playoff game last week 31-10 over the Bengals.

The Ravens enter the game 12-4, winners of the AFC North, and six of their last seven games. They were also a perfect 8-0 at home, a good sign for a franchise that's been waiting five years to host another playoff game. The Ravens have been excellent against playoff teams this season, going a perfect 6-0, which means they lost all four of their games to non-playoff teams, including losses to Jacksonville and Seattle. Luckily for them, the only teams left are obviously playoff teams.

Last week Arian Foster had a huge night against the Bengals, rushing for 153 yards and two touchdowns, and the Texans Defense played great, including an interception for a TD by DE J.J. Watt, in their Wild Card victory. Rookie QB T.J. Yates played mistake free, which is really all that can be asked of a third stringer. This week, playing on the road, will be a much bigger challenge for the rookie.

The Texans and Ravens did play back in Week 6, a 29-14 Ravens win in Baltimore. The Texans did have QB Matt Schaub in that match-up, but were missing WR Andre Johnson, who is back now after battling a hamstring injury much of the season. Anquan Boldin had 132 yards receiving, and the Ravens Defense had four sacks of Schaub, helping lead to the easy win.

How do these two teams match up statistically? Here is a chart of stats, used over at Stampede Blue, to help find some key areas to watch Sunday afternoon. Please keep in mind these numbers have been adjusted for opponents faced, which gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison of the teams, and the stats are ordered from top to bottom in importance:

Some keys to the game:

• We'll start when the Texans have the ball, where the Texans will have their work cut out for them driving the football. The Ravens defense is ranked 4th best in Drive Success Rate, while the Texans are right at the league average. The Texans were much lower than that in the first meeting, so they'll have to figure that out if they expect to win.
• The Ravens do not give up big plays, ranking best in the league in Yards per Play, which will force Yates to methodically move the ball down the field, meaning more chances for him to make a mistake. Don't expect many long bombs down the field for the Texans.
• The other stat the Ravens are tops in the league at is inside the Red Zone, a place where the Texans have really struggled, ranking just 26th in the league. The Texans only got inside the 20 once in the first meeting, and came away with no points. This could be the most important time in the game. If the Texans can find a way to get into the end zone, they'll have flipped a stat that shouldn't be in their favor, giving them a better chance at a win.
• We talked earlier about Arian Foster having a big game last week, but it'll be much tougher this week against the best Yards per Carry Defense in the NFL. He only had 49 yards on 15 carries in the first meeting, and that won't cut it this time around.
• The Texans defense has been on par with what the Ravens have done this season, so the Raven's Offense won't have an easy go of it either. The drive stats actually look slightly better for the Texans than they do for the Ravens, so the battle will be which team can sustain drives better.
• The passing game will be key for the Ravens against the 2nd best defense at Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt. QB Joe Flacco, who threw for 300 yards in the first game but had no TDs and threw an interception, has never had that breakout playoff game, although his team has won at least once each of his first three seasons.
  
• The Ravens offense is amazingly consistent in almost all categories, ranging between 8th and 12th in the league in a majority of categories. it makes it tough for any defense to try and take something away, as the Ravens will just do something else to make up for it.
• Just like on the other side of the ball, the Ravens hold a distinct advantage in the Red Zone. The Texans will not win if they don't flip at least on one side of the ball.

The stats look pretty similar overall for the two teams, but the Ravens look to hold an advantage in a couple key areas that should put them over the top. Add in a charged up home crowd, a place they've played really well all season, and the fact they've beat every good team they've played, and we'll pick the Ravens to win by a field goal.

SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Ravens 23, Texans 20

Some things in the NFL you can count on every year it seems, just like clockwork. In this case, it's the New England Patriots hosting a playoff game, something they've done every year since 2003, except for the year Tom Brady was lost for the season in Week 1, and they almost did it that year anyway, winning 11 games.

Then there are things that nobody expects to happen, and that's the Denver Broncos, who started the season 1-4, lost three straight to end the season, and were heavy home underdogs to Pittsburgh last week, beating the Steelers by passing the ball with Tim Tebow, who isn't exactly known for his passing prowess. It's what makes the NFL Playoffs must-see TV, and last week was no exception. The game between the Steelers and Broncos was the second most watched show on television of the past 12 months, bested only by Super Bowl XLV. Something tells me Saturday night will best it however.

With the Patriots winning so much over the past decade, their 13-3 record, and #1 seed in the AFC, isn't being talked about much. They've won eight games in a row coming into the playoffs, after losing two straight to the Steelers and Giants. Their most impressive victory in that stretch came over their opponent Saturday night, a 41-23 win in Denver, in a game they fell behind 16-7. In fact, in their final three games, they had to play quite a bit of catch-up, being down 9, 17, and 21 respectively early in those games. Eventually those things tend to catch up with teams. The Patriots have also lost in this round of the playoffs, at home, each of the past two seasons. A third straight home loss in the playoffs will have Patriots fans really wondering what happened to the early 2000s Patriots, when they were seemingly unbeatable in the playoffs.

If you haven't heard, Tim Tebow is the biggest story in the NFL this season, as the Broncos have had comeback after comeback this season. Last week, however, they jumped all over the Steelers in the 2nd quarter, thanks to a couple long pass plays to Demaryius Thomas, and were the team trying to stop the comeback, rather than having to do it on offense. The Steelers tied it, we got to see our first Overtime game with the new rules, and Tebow-to-Thomas for 80 yards happened on the first play, ending the game quicker than referee Ron Winter's explanation of the new rules. Overshadowed all season, the Broncos defense played really well yet again last week, getting key stops and forcing field goals early until their offense starting hitting those deep balls.

The last time the Patriots and Broncos played in the Playoffs was in 2005, a 27-13 loss in the divisional round, Tom Brady's first playoff loss of his career. They've had only one other playoff game, way back in January of 1987, a 22-17 Broncos win, and it was John Elway's first career playoff win, and he followed that up the next week with "The Drive" against the Browns, sending the Broncos to the Super Bowl.

How do these two teams match up statistically? Here is a chart of stats, used over at Stampede Blue, to help find some key areas to watch Saturday night. Please keep in mind these numbers have been adjusted for opponents faced, which gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison of the teams, and the stats are ordered from top to bottom in importance:

Some keys to the game:

• The Patriots Offense was best in the league in moving the ball down the field, ranking first in Drive Success Rate (DSR), second in Yards per Drive, and third in Three and Outs. The Broncos defense has been good all season, ranking in the top 10 in the league, but they'll need to play even better to win Saturday.
• The Broncos pass defense has been less than stellar this season, ranking 22nd in Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt, which is not what you want to see when going up against Tom Brady and his second ranked passing attack. Brady nearly had 10 ANPY/Attempt in their first meeting, and if that doesn't change, don't expect the outcome of the game to either.
• The Broncos also can't rely on turnovers, as they've struggled forcing them all season, and the Patriots, as they always do, take care of the football. Denver will have to stop drives the conventional way if they are to pull off the upset.
• Watch for 3rd/4th Down situations, as both teams are ranked 4th in the NFL. In the first game, the Patriots converted 43% of their 3rd/4th downs, closer to their average than the Broncos Defenses's average. This is how the Broncos can beat the Patriots, but they'll have to be consistent with it.
• On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have been one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to letting opposing offenses drive down the field, ranking dead last in DSR and Yards per Drive, and 31st in Plays per Drive. The Broncos Offense didn't fare much better, ranking 27th, 30th, and 31st in those categories. The Movable Object vs. the Resistible Force. The first time around the Broncos were able to move the ball, which is a good sign for them, with a DSR of 76.5%. They'll need to do that again to have a chance.
• The Broncos will have to watch the turnovers, as that is the one thing the Patriots have excelled at on defense, getting over two per game. The Broncos absolutely cannot give the Patriots a short field, or lost a scoring chance from a turnover. They had 3 in the first game. Can't do that again.
• The Broncos beat the Steelers last week because of huge plays in the passing game, and as luck would have it the Patriots rank 30th in Yards per Play, so they are prone to the big play. Look for multiple shots down the field by Tebow, most likely again to Thomas, and even if they draw penalties, it's a positive for Denver.

The forecast looks clear in Foxboro Saturday night, but it will be a balmy 23 degrees at kickoff. Both of these teams are used to playing in the elements, so it shouldn't be too much of a factor, especially with just a 12 mph wind. The Broncos weren't given much of a chance last week, but they somehow pulled off the upset at home. This week, however, it's just going to be too much for them to overcome. The Patriots handled them easily less than a month ago, and they'll do it again, somewhat comfortably. The Broncos won't go away easily, however.

SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Patriots 30, Broncos 21