NFL Playoffs 2012 - Road To Indianapolis: Broncos Vs. Patriots AFC Divisional Round Preview

By Matt Grecco - Associate Editor

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Jan 13, 2012 - Some things in the NFL you can count on every year it seems, just like clockwork. In this case, it's the New England Patriots hosting a playoff game, something they've done every year since 2003, except for the year Tom Brady was lost for the season in Week 1, and they almost did it that year anyway, winning 11 games.

Then there are things that nobody expects to happen, and that's the Denver Broncos, who started the season 1-4, lost three straight to end the season, and were heavy home underdogs to Pittsburgh last week, beating the Steelers by passing the ball with Tim Tebow, who isn't exactly known for his passing prowess. It's what makes the NFL Playoffs must-see TV, and last week was no exception. The game between the Steelers and Broncos was the second most watched show on television of the past 12 months, bested only by Super Bowl XLV. Something tells me Saturday night will best it however.

With the Patriots winning so much over the past decade, their 13-3 record, and #1 seed in the AFC, isn't being talked about much. They've won eight games in a row coming into the playoffs, after losing two straight to the Steelers and Giants. Their most impressive victory in that stretch came over their opponent Saturday night, a 41-23 win in Denver, in a game they fell behind 16-7. In fact, in their final three games, they had to play quite a bit of catch-up, being down 9, 17, and 21 respectively early in those games. Eventually those things tend to catch up with teams. The Patriots have also lost in this round of the playoffs, at home, each of the past two seasons. A third straight home loss in the playoffs will have Patriots fans really wondering what happened to the early 2000s Patriots, when they were seemingly unbeatable in the playoffs.

If you haven't heard, Tim Tebow is the biggest story in the NFL this season, as the Broncos have had comeback after comeback this season. Last week, however, they jumped all over the Steelers in the 2nd quarter, thanks to a couple long pass plays to Demaryius Thomas, and were the team trying to stop the comeback, rather than having to do it on offense. The Steelers tied it, we got to see our first Overtime game with the new rules, and Tebow-to-Thomas for 80 yards happened on the first play, ending the game quicker than referee Ron Winter's explanation of the new rules. Overshadowed all season, the Broncos defense played really well yet again last week, getting key stops and forcing field goals early until their offense starting hitting those deep balls.

The last time the Patriots and Broncos played in the Playoffs was in 2005, a 27-13 loss in the divisional round, Tom Brady's first playoff loss of his career. They've had only one other playoff game, way back in January of 1987, a 22-17 Broncos win, and it was John Elway's first career playoff win, and he followed that up the next week with "The Drive" against the Browns, sending the Broncos to the Super Bowl.

How do these two teams match up statistically? Here is a chart of stats, used over at Stampede Blue, to help find some key areas to watch Saturday night. Please keep in mind these numbers have been adjusted for opponents faced, which gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison of the teams, and the stats are ordered from top to bottom in importance:

Statistic	Broncos				Patriots
	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	63.7%	27	66.5%	9	79.6%	1	74.7%	32
ANPY/A	4.805	21	5.866	22	7.963	2	6.069	27
Turnovers	1.97	24	1.26	29	1.35	4	2.04	7
Yds/Drive	22.87	30	26.78	10	38.77	2	37.14	32
ToP/Drive	2:22.0	30	2:33.0	8	2:44.0	13	2:56.0	29
Yds/Play	4.692	25	5.047	14	6.097	3	5.943	30
First Downs/Drive	1.33	30	1.50	8	2.31	2	2.10	32
3rd/4th Down	30.6%	31	33.5%	4	47.5%	4	45.2%	31
Avg Start Pos	29.6	26	31.3	19	31.2	14	27.4	2
3 and Outs	5.75	32	3.75	19	2.45	3	3.05	27
RZ Eff	56.3%	29	62.1%	12	76.4%	2	69.6%	22
Plays/Drive	5.036	31	5.317	8	6.337	3	6.187	31
Penalty Yds / Play	0.801	18	0.754	25	0.678	6	0.872	10
RB Success	44.5%	18	43.0%	10	53.1%	2	50.3%	29
Yds/Carry	4.65	5	4.00	14	3.86	23	4.41	24
Net Punting Average	39.69	5	38.24	15	39.76	4	36.77	5
Overall	28		13		3		30

Some keys to the game:

• The Patriots Offense was best in the league in moving the ball down the field, ranking first in Drive Success Rate (DSR), second in Yards per Drive, and third in Three and Outs. The Broncos defense has been good all season, ranking in the top 10 in the league, but they'll need to play even better to win Saturday.
• The Broncos pass defense has been less than stellar this season, ranking 22nd in Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt, which is not what you want to see when going up against Tom Brady and his second ranked passing attack. Brady nearly had 10 ANPY/Attempt in their first meeting, and if that doesn't change, don't expect the outcome of the game to either.
• The Broncos also can't rely on turnovers, as they've struggled forcing them all season, and the Patriots, as they always do, take care of the football. Denver will have to stop drives the conventional way if they are to pull off the upset.
• Watch for 3rd/4th Down situations, as both teams are ranked 4th in the NFL. In the first game, the Patriots converted 43% of their 3rd/4th downs, closer to their average than the Broncos Defenses's average. This is how the Broncos can beat the Patriots, but they'll have to be consistent with it.
• On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have been one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to letting opposing offenses drive down the field, ranking dead last in DSR and Yards per Drive, and 31st in Plays per Drive. The Broncos Offense didn't fare much better, ranking 27th, 30th, and 31st in those categories. The Movable Object vs. the Resistible Force. The first time around the Broncos were able to move the ball, which is a good sign for them, with a DSR of 76.5%. They'll need to do that again to have a chance.
• The Broncos will have to watch the turnovers, as that is the one thing the Patriots have excelled at on defense, getting over two per game. The Broncos absolutely cannot give the Patriots a short field, or lost a scoring chance from a turnover. They had 3 in the first game. Can't do that again.
• The Broncos beat the Steelers last week because of huge plays in the passing game, and as luck would have it the Patriots rank 30th in Yards per Play, so they are prone to the big play. Look for multiple shots down the field by Tebow, most likely again to Thomas, and even if they draw penalties, it's a positive for Denver.

The forecast looks clear in Foxboro Saturday night, but it will be a balmy 23 degrees at kickoff. Both of these teams are used to playing in the elements, so it shouldn't be too much of a factor, especially with just a 12 mph wind. The Broncos weren't given much of a chance last week, but they somehow pulled off the upset at home. This week, however, it's just going to be too much for them to overcome. The Patriots handled them easily less than a month ago, and they'll do it again, somewhat comfortably. The Broncos won't go away easily, however.

SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Patriots 30, Broncos 21

Read More: 2012 nfl playoffs, 2012 nfl divisional round, 2012 nfl playoff picks, Tom Brady (QB - NEP), Tim Tebow (QB - NYJ), Demaryius Thomas (WR - DEN), New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Denver Broncos at New England Patriots, Jan 14, 2012 8:00 PM EST

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