NFL Playoffs 2012 - Road To Indianapolis: Texans Vs. Ravens AFC Divisional Round Preview

By Matt Grecco - Associate Editor

Follow @sbnationindiana on Twitter, and Like SB Nation Indiana on Facebook.

Jan 14, 2012 - For the fourth consecutive season, the Baltimore Ravens have made the Divisional Round in the NFL Playoffs, only this season, for the first time since the 2006 season, they'll get to play a game at home. Sunday afternoon, they'll be hosting the Houston Texans, who were victorious in their first ever playoff game last week 31-10 over the Bengals.

The Ravens enter the game 12-4, winners of the AFC North, and six of their last seven games. They were also a perfect 8-0 at home, a good sign for a franchise that's been waiting five years to host another playoff game. The Ravens have been excellent against playoff teams this season, going a perfect 6-0, which means they lost all four of their games to non-playoff teams, including losses to Jacksonville and Seattle. Luckily for them, the only teams left are obviously playoff teams.

Last week Arian Foster had a huge night against the Bengals, rushing for 153 yards and two touchdowns, and the Texans Defense played great, including an interception for a TD by DE J.J. Watt, in their Wild Card victory. Rookie QB T.J. Yates played mistake free, which is really all that can be asked of a third stringer. This week, playing on the road, will be a much bigger challenge for the rookie.

The Texans and Ravens did play back in Week 6, a 29-14 Ravens win in Baltimore. The Texans did have QB Matt Schaub in that match-up, but were missing WR Andre Johnson, who is back now after battling a hamstring injury much of the season. Anquan Boldin had 132 yards receiving, and the Ravens Defense had four sacks of Schaub, helping lead to the easy win.

How do these two teams match up statistically? Here is a chart of stats, used over at Stampede Blue, to help find some key areas to watch Sunday afternoon. Please keep in mind these numbers have been adjusted for opponents faced, which gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison of the teams, and the stats are ordered from top to bottom in importance:

Statistic	Texans				Ravens
	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	69.1%	13	64.6%	5	70.2%	12	63.9%	4
ANPY/A	6.682	7	4.432	2	5.668	15	4.547	5
Turnovers	1.58	11	1.83	13	1.79	19	1.82	14
Yds/Drive	30.74	12	23.88	2	29.65	14	25.47	6
ToP/Drive	2:51.0	7	2:27.0	4	2:44.0	12	2:39.0	16
Yds/Play	5.461	12	4.565	3	5.198	15	4.496	1
First Downs/Drive	1.67	14	1.46	5	1.73	11	1.51	10
3rd/4th Down	40.1%	13	36.7%	11	41.9%	8	35.6%	10
Avg Start Pos	32.5	5	31.6	20	31.5	10	32.2	25
3 and Outs	3.96	16	4.79	5	3.34	9	4.53	9
RZ Eff	59.3%	26	70.6%	24	69.4%	11	48.8%	1
Plays/Drive	5.606	13	5.188	4	5.744	8	5.507	13
Penalty Yds / Play	0.779	15	0.710	29	0.726	10	1.002	2
RB Success	45.9%	14	43.2%	11	46.9%	11	43.5%	13
Yds/Carry	4.40	8	3.93	12	4.39	9	3.56	1
Net Punting Average	37.10	23	38.98	24	38.78	13	38.10	12
Overall	10		5		13		4

Some keys to the game:

• We'll start when the Texans have the ball, where the Texans will have their work cut out for them driving the football. The Ravens defense is ranked 4th best in Drive Success Rate, while the Texans are right at the league average. The Texans were much lower than that in the first meeting, so they'll have to figure that out if they expect to win.
• The Ravens do not give up big plays, ranking best in the league in Yards per Play, which will force Yates to methodically move the ball down the field, meaning more chances for him to make a mistake. Don't expect many long bombs down the field for the Texans.
• The other stat the Ravens are tops in the league at is inside the Red Zone, a place where the Texans have really struggled, ranking just 26th in the league. The Texans only got inside the 20 once in the first meeting, and came away with no points. This could be the most important time in the game. If the Texans can find a way to get into the end zone, they'll have flipped a stat that shouldn't be in their favor, giving them a better chance at a win.
• We talked earlier about Arian Foster having a big game last week, but it'll be much tougher this week against the best Yards per Carry Defense in the NFL. He only had 49 yards on 15 carries in the first meeting, and that won't cut it this time around.
• The Texans defense has been on par with what the Ravens have done this season, so the Raven's Offense won't have an easy go of it either. The drive stats actually look slightly better for the Texans than they do for the Ravens, so the battle will be which team can sustain drives better.
• The passing game will be key for the Ravens against the 2nd best defense at Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt. QB Joe Flacco, who threw for 300 yards in the first game but had no TDs and threw an interception, has never had that breakout playoff game, although his team has won at least once each of his first three seasons.
  
• The Ravens offense is amazingly consistent in almost all categories, ranging between 8th and 12th in the league in a majority of categories. it makes it tough for any defense to try and take something away, as the Ravens will just do something else to make up for it.
• Just like on the other side of the ball, the Ravens hold a distinct advantage in the Red Zone. The Texans will not win if they don't flip at least on one side of the ball.

The stats look pretty similar overall for the two teams, but the Ravens look to hold an advantage in a couple key areas that should put them over the top. Add in a charged up home crowd, a place they've played really well all season, and the fact they've beat every good team they've played, and we'll pick the Ravens to win by a field goal.

SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Ravens 23, Texans 20

Read More: 2012 nfl playoffs, 2012 nfl playoff picks, 2012 nfl divisional round, Anquan Boldin (WR - BAL), Andre Johnson (WR - HOU), Matt Schaub (QB - HOU), Joe Flacco (QB - BAL), Arian Foster (RB - HOU), J.J. Watt (DE - HOU), T.J. Yates (QB - HOU), Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens, Jan 15, 2012 1:00 PM EST

Follow @sbnationindiana on Twitter, and Like SB Nation Indiana on Facebook.

Tweet 0 comments