NFL Playoffs 2012 - Road To Indianapolis: Giants Vs. Packers NFC Divisional Round Preview

By Matt Grecco - Associate Editor

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Jan 14, 2012 - The defending Super Bowl Champions will be the last team to make their Playoff debut in 2012 when the Green Bay Packers host the New York Giants Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. A winter storm ripped through the Midwest earlier this week, and temperatures will be in the teens at kickoff, and only getting colder. It won't be quite as cold as the last time these two teams met in the playoffs, a 23-20 OT win for the Giants four years ago, which ended up being Brett Favre's last game in a Packers uniform, in a game that was below zero at kickoff.

The Packers were a league-best 15-1 on the season, with their lone loss on the road at Kansas City in Week 15. They even won in Week 17 against another playoff team, the Lions, without the services of QB Aaron Rodgers, CB Charles Woodson, and LB Clay Matthews, who all sat out to rest for the Playoffs. Matt Flynn came in for Rodgers and set the franchise record for TD passes in a game, six, in the 45-41 win. Rodgers looks to be the runaway MVP of the league, as the offense looked unstoppable in multiple games this season.

The Giants Defense played exceptionally well last week in their 24-2 win over the Falcons, pitching a shutout against one of the better offenses in the league. QB Eli Manning had a big day throwing to WR Hakeem Nicks, as Nicks had 115 yards receiving and a pair of TDs, while Manning had 277 yards passing and three scores. It was the first home win in the Playoffs for the Giants since 2000.

The Packers and Giants played a great game earlier this season, a 38-35 Packers win that went back and forth the entire game, saw a game-tying TD and two-point conversion by the Giants with just under a minute remaining, but it was plenty of time for Rodgers and the Packers, who were in field goal range in two plays and just 14 seconds, and Mason Crosby finished it off with a 31 yard field goal as time expired. It was the Giants fourth straight loss at the time, pushing them to 6-6 and out of the playoff picture. New York bounced back, winning three of their last four games, to win the NFC East.

How do these two teams match up statistically? Here is a chart of stats, used over at Stampede Blue, to help find some key areas to watch Sunday afternoon. Please keep in mind these numbers have been adjusted for opponents faced, which gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison of the teams, and the stats are ordered from top to bottom in importance:

Statistic	Giants				Packers
	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	71.6%	10	70.1%	21	78.8%	2	73.3%	28
ANPY/A	7.116	4	5.084	10	8.833	1	5.599	17
Turnovers	1.66	16	2.09	6	0.98	2	2.55	1
Yds/Drive	31.08	9	29.27	20	36.80	4	35.78	31
ToP/Drive	2:36.0	20	2:38.0	15	3:01.0	3	2:45.0	19
Yds/Play	5.661	9	5.258	22	6.184	2	6.014	32
First Downs/Drive	1.73	10	1.66	17	2.03	5	1.98	31
3rd/4th Down	37.2%	17	40.8%	21	48.8%	3	42.6%	25
Avg Start Pos	30.2	21	30.2	12	33.0	4	28.6	4
3 and Outs	4.05	19	4.07	14	2.80	6	2.90	29
RZ Eff	66.8%	14	68.2%	21	75.3%	4	74.6%	29
Plays/Drive	5.535	15	5.607	20	5.951	6	5.969	29
Penalty Yds / Play	0.718	9	0.873	9	0.580	2	0.804	19
RB Success	42.8%	22	46.7%	19	42.6%	24	51.5%	30
Yds/Carry	3.27	32	4.30	22	3.74	28	4.35	23
Net Punting Average	38.66	14	39.00	25	38.80	11	37.07	6
Overall	11		18		2		26

Some keys to the game:

• Look how scary good that Packers offense is. They are in the top 6 of the NFL in the 13 most important stats shown here, an amazing feat. It's obviously why they finished 15-1.
• The Giants defense has let teams drive the ball on them all season, ranking below league average in most of the drive-related stats. They'll need to find a way to get this potent Packers Offense off the field if they expect to pull off the upset.
  
• One area the Giants Defense has been really good at this season is forcing turnovers, ranking 6th in the league. They did get an interception of Rodgers deep in Packers territory in the first game, leading to a Brandon Jacobs TD. The Packers are not prone to many turnovers, but the Giants will probably need a couple to win.
• The Packers don't run the ball well at all, but it really doesn't matter to them, as they hardly try to establish any kind of run game. It's more of a bonus when they get big plays from James Starks or Ryan Grant, so the Giants will need to stop them, just as all other Packers opponents have done this season.
• The Packers defense, however, has been pretty bad at everything except forcing turnovers, where they are best in the league. It's a case where they know their offense is so good, they take those risks for the big play, and if they get burned, no big deal. The Giants turned it over twice in the first meeting, one of which was returned for a touchdown by Clay Matthews. It's tough to outscore the Packers offense, let alone when the defense scores too.
• Eli Manning should be able to have another big day throwing the ball, as the Packers are slightly below average in Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt, and they aren't any worse thanks in large part to all the interceptions.
  
• The Giants are not very good at Yards per Carry, ranking dead last, despite the big names of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. The Packers really struggled in the first game in stopping the run, so they'll have their work cut out for them.

This has all the makings for a shootout, much like the first meeting. The weather may play a factor if the wind picks up, since both teams want to air it out, but the cold shouldn't be too much of a factor. I think the game comes down to who has the ball last, and it'll be the Packers by a field goal, just like the first time around.

SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Packers 31, Giants 28

Read More: 2012 nfl playoffs, 2012 nfl divisional round, 2012 nfl playoff picks, Brett Favre (QB - MIN), Aaron Rodgers (QB - GBP), Charles Woodson (CB - GBP), Eli Manning (QB - NYG), Mason Crosby (K - GBP), Ahmad Bradshaw (RB - NYG), Ryan Grant (RB - GBP), Matt Flynn (QB - SEA), Hakeem Nicks (WR - NYG), Clay Matthews (LB - GBP), New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, New York Giants at Green Bay Packers, Jan 15, 2012 4:30 PM EST

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