NFL Playoffs 2012 - Road To Indianapolis: Ravens Vs. Patriots AFC Championship Preview

By Matt Grecco - Associate Editor

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Jan 20, 2012 - Championship Sunday in the NFL kicks off with a match-up between the top two seeds in the AFC, when the Baltimore Ravens travel to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots. Despite the success of these franchises over the past decade, they've only met once in the playoffs, a 33-14 Ravens blowout win at New England two seasons ago. Unfortunately for the Ravens, that is the lone victory ever against the Patriots in seven meetings. The two teams did not play in 2011.

The Patriots led the AFC with a 13-3 record, and have won nine straight games. Last week they slaughtered the clearly overmatched Broncos 45-10, and the game was over midway through the second quarter. Tom Brady tied the NFL Playoff record for touchdown passes in a game with 6, including five in the first half. The Patriots Defense played one of its best games of the season last week as well, stifling Tim Tebow and the Broncos Offense. It's only one game, but if the Patriots play Defense like they did last week going forward, they'll have no trouble winning the Super Bowl.

The Ravens finished 12-4 on the season, and have won seven of their last eight games, including their last three. Last week they jumped all over the Texans, racing to a 17-3 lead in the first quarter, but cruised to the finish, winning just 20-13. They forced four Texan turnovers, including a final hail mary by Safety Ed Reed. The Ravens offense struggled to move the ball when they didn't get excellent field position, but they'll face a much more forgiving defense this week.

A couple key players missed some practice time this week, including Tom Brady, who did not practice on Wednesday because of an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. He practiced fully on Thursday, and there's no way he isn't going to play Sunday afternoon. Several other Patriots were limited on Thursday, including TE Aaron Hernandez with a Concussion and WR Wes Welker with a knee injury. I'd be very surprised if these guys don't go as well. For the Ravens, the only guy that showed up on the injury report was Ed Reed, who came up gimpy after his game-ending interception last week. Reed has said he's playing, so no need to worry about his status, at least to begin the game.

How do these two teams match up statistically? Here is a chart of stats, used over at Stampede Blue, to help find some key areas to watch Sunday afternoon. Please keep in mind these numbers have been adjusted for opponents faced, which gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison of the teams, and the stats are ordered from top to bottom in importance:

Statistic	Ravens				Patriots
	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	70.2%	12	63.9%	4	79.6%	1	74.7%	32
ANPY/A	5.668	15	4.547	5	7.963	2	6.069	27
Turnovers	1.79	19	1.82	14	1.35	4	2.04	7
Yds/Drive	29.65	14	25.47	6	38.77	2	37.14	32
ToP/Drive	2:44.0	12	2:39.0	16	2:44.0	13	2:56.0	29
Yds/Play	5.198	15	4.496	1	6.097	3	5.943	30
First Downs/Drive	1.73	11	1.51	10	2.31	2	2.10	32
3rd/4th Down	41.9%	8	35.6%	10	47.5%	4	45.2%	31
Avg Start Pos	31.5	10	32.2	25	31.2	14	27.4	2
3 and Outs	3.34	9	4.53	9	2.45	3	3.05	27
RZ Eff	69.4%	11	48.8%	1	76.4%	2	69.6%	22
Plays/Drive	5.744	8	5.507	13	6.337	3	6.187	31
Penalty Yds / Play	0.726	10	1.002	2	0.678	6	0.872	10
RB Success	46.9%	11	43.5%	13	53.1%	2	50.3%	29
Yds/Carry	4.39	9	3.56	1	3.86	23	4.41	24
Net Punting Average	38.78	13	38.10	12	39.76	4	36.77	5
Overall	13		4		3		30

Some keys to the game:

• We'll start with the marquee match-up of the game, when the Patriots have the ball. A pair of top five units playing against each other, which always makes for a great game. These two will be no different.
• Drive Success Rate, our most important stat, will be very important Sunday, as the Patriots have been the best team in the NFL all season, and they count on their ability to move the chains. The Ravens defense has been one of the best at stopping that chain movement, so whoever can get this leg up will be in prime position to win Sunday.
• The Ravens got those four turnovers last week, but they shouldn't expect that to happen again, as the Patriots are great at taking care of the ball, despite two turnovers of their own last week. Compared to some of their other stats, the Ravens are quite at the same level, so getting a couple turnovers will definitely swing the game in their favor.
• The Patriots don't pretend to be able to run the football, but they have been very good at RB Success Rate this season, ranking 2nd in the NFL, while they've not been very good at Yards per Carry. What this means is that they can consistently get 3-4 yards, but don't break long runs very often. This is the opposite of the Ravens strengths, who are excellent at Yards per carry, but are prone to give up those critical yards needed to get first downs / touchdowns. This isn't a big key, but something certainly to watch.
• The Ravens Offense are pretty consistent across all stats, coming in between 8th and 15th in all stats except for Turnovers, where they are slightly below average. The Patriots defense is all sorts of bad, ranking dead last in multiple categories. The Ravens will have their chance to score points Sunday.
• The Patriots rank last in several of the drive-related stats, including Drive Success Rate and Yards per Drive, which means if the Ravens can't move the ball, it's going to be really, really bad for them. They have been slightly above average all year, and it'll have to continue Sunday for them to win. It will also keep Tom Brady and the Offense off the field going this route.
• This is especially true on 3rd/4th down, where the Ravens rank 8th in the NFL converting at 42%, while the Patriots are second worst in the league, giving up 45%. Those will be big plays in this game.
• The one thing the Patriots do really well is create turnovers, getting just over two per game. Like I mentioned before, turnovers is the worst Ravens Offensive stat. I'd be especially weary of a Joe Flacco strip-sack, as he really struggles with that, fumbling 11 times this season, and the Patriots got one last week against Tim Tebow.

One of the great things about Playoff season is you get match-ups like this where it is great offense against great defense, but most of the time it is the other side of the ball that determines these games. It happened last week in the Saints-49ers game, as well as last year's Super Bowl, where the Packers Defense came up big against the Steelers Offense despite the other sides of the ball getting all the press. When you take this into consideration, I think the Ravens have the advantage, as on the whole, their offense has been better than the Patriots Defense this season.

However, the Ravens Defense hasn't quite been the same away from M&T Bank Stadium this season, looking pretty average in fact. I think this game will come down to whoever has the ball last, and I'll give the edge to the Patriots, as they're at home. As has always been the case, Brady will drive the Patriots down the field, and his field goal kicker will put them in the Super Bowl.

SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 26

Read More: 2012 nfl playoffs, 2012 nfl playoff picks, 2012 afc championship game, Ed Reed (S - BAL), Tom Brady (QB - NEP), Wes Welker (WR - NEP), Joe Flacco (QB - BAL), Aaron Hernandez (TE - NEP), Tim Tebow (QB - NYJ), Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, Jan 22, 2012 3:00 PM EST

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