NFL Playoffs 2012 - Road To Indianapolis: Giants Vs. 49ers NFC Championship Preview

By Matt Grecco - Associate Editor

Follow @sbnationindiana on Twitter, and Like SB Nation Indiana on Facebook.

Jan 20, 2012 - The NFC Championship game will be a classic battle of great franchises, when the New York Giants travel across the country to take on the San Francisco 49ers for the right to take on the AFC Champion in Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis. These two teams met back in Week 10, a 27-20 49ers win in San Francisco. The first half was a battle of field goals, but exploded with four touchdowns in the final 18 minutes. Frank Gore injured his knee in the second quarter and didn't return, and the 49ers successfully executed an onside kick in the second quarter, which got them an extra 3 points. Something to think about for Sunday from both teams.

The 49ers made the NFC Title team by slaying the NFL's offensive beast, the Saints, by out-scoring them in a wild final four minutes last week, with four different lead changes, and Alex Smith finding Vernon Davis for a 14 yard touchdown with nine seconds remaining to win the game. They forced five Saints turnovers, which certainly helped slow down one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL. It's not often a home team in the Divisional Round is an underdog, but the 49ers earned the opportunity to host another game this weekend. They finished the regular season 13-3, and have now won four straight games.

The Giants have done their customary roller-coaster routine this season. They started the year 6-2, including a win in New England, then lost four straight, including that game in San Francisco, finished the year 3-1, and have looked dominant in beating the Falcons at home, and last week against the defending Super Bowl Champion and 15-1 Packers, making them the first team with 15 regular season wins to not win a playoff game. The Giants are clearly peaking at the right time, much like they did in 2007 when they won the Super Bowl. The Giants Defense confused Aaron Rodgers all afternoon last week, making the soon-to-be NFL MVP look pretty average, and the Giants Offense put up plenty of points against an overachieving and opportunistic defense. The Giants did to the Packers what the Packers did to everyone else this season.

These two teams have played a couple of memorable playoff games in recent memory. They played in the NFC Championship game back in January of 1991, where the Giants knocked Joe Montana out of the game with a bruised sternum and broken pinkie on his right hand with about 10 minutes remaining and the 49ers leading 13-9, and the Giants managed two Matt Bahr field goals in the final 10 minutes, won the game 15-13, and they went on to win Super Bowl XXV over the Bills 20-19. Most recently they played in January of 2003, a wild 39-38 49ers win where they scored 25 unanswered points after being down 38-14 midway through the 3rd quarter. The game ended on a botched snap on a field goal, making long-snapper Trey Junkin a household name, and famous for a non-called pass interference penalty on the pass down the field on the final play, missed by the officials in the craziness of the play.

How do these two teams match up statistically? Here is a chart of stats, used over at Stampede Blue, to help find some key areas to watch Sunday afternoon. Please keep in mind these numbers have been adjusted for opponents faced, which gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison of the teams, and the stats are ordered from top to bottom in importance:

Statistic	Giants				49ers
	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	71.6%	10	70.1%	21	66.2%	23	63.3%	3
ANPY/A	7.116	4	5.084	10	6.141	11	4.701	7
Turnovers	1.66	16	2.09	6	0.83	1	2.45	2
Yds/Drive	31.08	9	29.27	20	25.89	21	25.45	5
ToP/Drive	2:36.0	20	2:38.0	15	2:49.0	9	2:30.0	5
Yds/Play	5.661	9	5.258	22	4.847	21	4.831	6
First Downs/Drive	1.73	10	1.66	17	1.49	20	1.40	4
3rd/4th Down	37.2%	17	40.8%	21	32.8%	29	37.2%	12
Avg Start Pos	30.2	21	30.2	12	35.9	1	27.1	1
3 and Outs	4.05	19	4.07	14	4.11	22	4.76	6
RZ Eff	66.8%	14	68.2%	21	63.3%	22	51.6%	2
Plays/Drive	5.535	15	5.607	20	5.362	21	5.223	7
Penalty Yds / Play	0.718	9	0.873	9	0.979	26	0.795	21
RB Success	42.8%	22	46.7%	19	41.8%	26	37.3%	1
Yds/Carry	3.27	32	4.30	22	3.93	20	3.61	3
Net Punting Average	38.66	14	39.00	25	44.48	2	37.57	8
Overall	11		18		14		2

Some keys to the game:

• In their first meeting, the Red Zone was a key area, as the Defenses won the day in the first half, but the Offenses won in the second half. The 49ers Defense is 2nd best in the NFL, while the Giants Offense is just above league average. The team that scores more touchdowns than field goals will win.
• The Giants will have to move the ball down a long field, as the 49ers are best in the league on both sides of the ball at Average Starting Field Position. It forces opposing offenses to run more plays, thus having more opportunities to make a mistake, and their offense doesn't need as many yards to get into scoring position. In the first meeting, the Giants started, on average, at their own 19 yard line. 49ers? Their own 35. Field Position plays more of a part in Playoff games, so big advantage to the 49ers here.
• Much like last week, Turnovers will rule the day. The Giants forced four turnovers last week, while the 49ers forced five. The 49ers Offense is best in the NFL at taking care of the ball, but the Giants have had some issues, ranking 16th in the league. It was a major factor last week, and will be again this week. Another advantage to the 49ers.
• For the Giants to win, they'll need Eli Manning to have a big day, as the Giants hold an advantage of the 49ers Defense in our passing stat of choice, Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt, ranking 4th in the NFL. Manning has been lights out the first two playoff weekends, and he'll need a third for the Giants to win Sunday.
• The Giants will also need to move the ball like they did in their first meeting, where they ranked in the Top 5 in the NFL that week, with an 80% Drive Success Rate, 43 Yards per Drive, Time of Possession per Drive over three and a half minutes, and converted 55% of their third down plays. They couldn't get a win last time despite these great numbers, which means they'll probably need to at least duplicate them to win.
• The Giants running game has been fairly good over the past few weeks despite the terrible full-season stats, but don't expect much against the 49ers defense. They're fantastic against the run. If the Giants can run the ball successfully, it'll be bad news for the 49ers.

The Giants played incredibly well the first time these two teams met, yet lost the game by a touchdown. Now they are playing their best football, but so are the 49ers. This game looks incredibly close, but there are too many key factors that lean towards the 49ers, and the fact they are playing at home, and Jim Harbaugh will have his guys ready to run through walls for him. There's also this little fact too:

Crazy stat of the day: A team who defeats the defending #SuperBowl champ and plays the following week on the road is 0-14 SU. #49ers #Giants

— Craig Seward (@craigseward) January 20, 2012

That spells bad, bad news for the Giants after they beat the Packers at Lambeau last week.

SB Nation Indiana Prediction: 49ers 23, Giants 20

Read More: 2012 nfl playoffs, 2012 nfc championship, 2012 nfl playoff picks, Aaron Rodgers (QB - GBP), Vernon Davis (TE - SFX), Frank Gore (RB - SFX), Alex Smith (QB - SFX), Eli Manning (QB - NYG), New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers, Jan 22, 2012 6:30 PM EST

Follow @sbnationindiana on Twitter, and Like SB Nation Indiana on Facebook.

Tweet 0 comments