SB Nation Colts Free Agency 2012
Peyton Manning is unlikely to return as quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts in 2012. Most scenarios point to him getting released sometime before March 8th. Assuming Peyton Manning will be healthy by Week One of the 2012 season, this series will discuss possible landing places for, arguably, the greatest free agent quarterback this league has ever seen.
Why Houston? Don't they have a pretty good quarterback in Matt Schaub? Didn't his replacement, rookie T.J. Yates, also step in and perform well last season when Schaub was injured?
With all due respect to Schaub, Yates, and even to the immortal Matt Leinart, none of them can carry Peyton Manning's jock. Even a semi-healthy Peyton, playing at 80%, is ten times better than Matt Schaub, who, like it or not, has a knack for coming up small in big games. In 2010, in a must-win contest at Indianapolis, Schaub opened the game 5-15 for 37 yards with one interception. His rating was 14.6 at halftime. Meanwhile, Manning was 26 of 45 for 268 yards with two TDs. The injury depleted Colts jumped out to an early lead and never looked back. They rolled Houston 30-17, and made the playoffs that season. Houston went 2-7 after their loss to Indianapolis, and missed the post-season.
That's just one example of many. Schaub has certainly made strides since the days when he was Michael Vick's backup in Atlanta, but he's nowhere near Manning's stratosphere. Also, the Texans made the playoffs, and won in the playoffs, without him in 2011.
Schaub's contract, coupled with the salary cap, are not obstacles for Houston to ink Manning.
Schaub signed a six-year deal with Houston in 2007, and in 2010 he received a $10,000,000 option. He is owed $1,166,667 in bonus money for 2012 and $5,700,000 in base salary. Schaub's base salary is not guaranteed. If he is retained for 2012, his cap hit for Houston is $6,866,667. If Houston cuts Schaub, he counts only $1,166,667 in ''dead cap" for 2012.
Sure, cutting Schaub, who was having a career year before a Lisfranc injury in mid-November ended his season, would be cold-blooded. However, this is football, and it's a business first and foremost. Cutting Schaub saves them more money than keeping him, and if a healthy Peyton Manning is truly in the cards, then dumping Schaub is a ARE YOU KIDDING ME DO IT!!!! style no-brainer.
In terms of the salary cap, National Football Post's Andrew Brandt, a former personnel executive with the Packers, thinks the Texans are snug up against the cap next season with $5 mill of wiggle room, assuming a flat cap exists of about $120 mill. Brandt adds that this is dependent on what the Texans do with certain high priced free agents, like Mario Williams.
All signs point to Williams walking this off-season. Houston's defense played just as well without him as with him, thanks in large part to the genius coaching of coordinator Wade Phillips. Williams counted roughly $15 mill against Houston's cap last year.
So, it would appear that cutting Schaub and letting Williams walk would allow Houston the cap space to sign Manning. This could also make sense in terms of the future development of T.J. Yates, who might already be slated to replace Schaub regardless if he's cut this year. Yates still needs time to learn how to not throw the football to the other team. While he's doing that, Peyton Manning could be tossing bombs to Andre Johnson.
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