Patriots Vs. Giants: Super Bowl XLVI Preview

By Matt Grecco - Associate Editor

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Feb 2, 2012 - There couldn't be two more apropos teams to play in Indianapolis for Super Bowl XLVI than the New England Patriots and New York Giants. The Patriots, led by QB Tom Brady, have been the main rival for the host Colts for a decade, playing some of the most anticipated and best games over that stretch, while the Giants are led by QB Eli Manning, the younger brother of Colts QB Peyton Manning, who most consider the reason the Super Bowl is being played in Indianapolis on Sunday.

The Patriots reached the Super Bowl after surviving a potential game-winning, then game-tying drive by the Ravens two weeks ago, a 23-20 win. Lee Evans had a sure touchdown stripped from his hands, then Billy Cundiff hooked a 32 yard field goal wide left, and the Pats were onto their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history. Brady didn't have his best game of the season, failing to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 36 games, and for the first time in 19 playoff games, but did get the Patriots into position to score points with five 10+ play drives, all ending in points. The defense took over for the second consecutive week, something they didn't do much of during the regular season.

The Giants had some good fortune to get to Indianapolis as well, taking advantage of two punt return fumbles by 49ers WR Kyle Williams, the last of which coming in overtime, helping the Giants to a 20-17 win in San Francisco two Sunday's ago. Neither offense was having much luck as the two defenses were controlling the game, but turnovers turned out to be the difference, as both fumbles occurred inside the 49er 30 yard line, and turned into 10 Giants points. The two teams combined for 22 punts, and NFL playoff record. Coming off the heels of the victory in Green Bay against the defending Super Bowl Champs, the Giants definitely earned their trip to Super Bowl XLVI.

Much of the talk this week is about this game being a rematch of Super Bowl XLII, a 17-14 Giants win that ended the Patriots hopes of an undefeated season. While the jerseys will be the same, a good number of the players won't be there. In fact, only seven Patriots remain from that 2007 team, so the vast majority of this team will be experiencing the Super Bowl for the first time. There are a few more Giants still around, but they have been downplaying the significance of that game all week. While a good storyline, that game in 2008 is virtually meaningless to Sunday's tilt.

What is relevant to Sunday night's game is a Week 9 24-20 Giants victory in Foxboro, a game that was scoreless at halftime. It was by far the worst game offensively for the Patriots, as they committed four turnovers and had horrible field position throughout the game, starting on average at their own 17 yard line. The Giants didn't have much better luck on offense, but did manage to drive the ball 80+ yards twice in the final seven minutes, including a Jake Ballard 1 yard TD catch with 15 seconds left to win the game. This came after Brady led the Patriots on a 64 yard TD drive in 1:27, capped off by a 14 yarder to Rob Gronkowski on 4th and 9 to take the lead 20-17. For as uninspiring the first half was, the second had quite a bit of high drama.

All-time these two teams are 5-5 against each other, with only one game since 1990 being decided by more that four points (seven games). The Giants have won the last two, while the Patriots won the four previous to that. The two teams do play each other in the preseason each year, but you can't use any of those games to help figure out what will happen Sunday.

The big injury news of the week is the ankle of Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski, who is nursing a high-ankle sprain suffered late against the Ravens. He was seen in a walking boot when the team arrived on Sunday, but did not have a brace or anything on Tuesday during Media Day, and did not walk with a limp. Gronkowski has not practiced yet this week, but still plans to play Sunday, and is "day-by-day".

How do these two teams match up statistically? Here is a chart of stats, used over at Stampede Blue, to help find some key areas to watch Sunday night. Please keep in mind these numbers have been adjusted for opponents faced, which gives us a more apples-to-apples comparison of the teams, and the stats are ordered from top to bottom in importance:

Statistic	Giants				Patriots
	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	71.6%	10	70.1%	21	79.6%	1	74.7%	32
ANPY/A	7.116	4	5.084	10	7.963	2	6.069	27
Turnovers	1.66	16	2.09	6	1.35	4	2.04	7
Yds/Drive	31.08	9	29.27	20	38.77	2	37.14	32
ToP/Drive	2:36.0	20	2:38.0	15	2:44.0	13	2:56.0	29
Yds/Play	5.661	9	5.258	22	6.097	3	5.943	30
First Downs/Drive	1.73	10	1.66	17	2.31	2	2.10	32
3rd/4th Down	37.2%	17	40.8%	21	47.5%	4	45.2%	31
Avg Start Pos	30.2	21	30.2	12	31.2	14	27.4	2
3 and Outs	4.05	19	4.07	14	2.45	3	3.05	27
RZ Eff	66.8%	14	68.2%	21	76.4%	2	69.6%	22
Plays/Drive	5.535	15	5.607	20	6.337	3	6.187	31
Penalty Yds / Play	0.718	9	0.873	9	0.678	6	0.872	10
RB Success	42.8%	22	46.7%	19	53.1%	2	50.3%	29
Yds/Carry	3.27	32	4.30	22	3.86	23	4.41	24
Net Punting Average	38.66	14	39.00	25	39.76	4	36.77	5
Overall	11		18		3		30

Some keys to Super Bowl XLVI:

• As mentioned before, turnovers played a key part in the first meeting between the Giants and Patriots, and were a major factor in the Giants beating the 49ers. The Giants defense, while not standing out overall, was very good at forcing turnovers this season. The Patriots have been great taking care of the ball, but did have four against New York in Week 9, and turned it over three times last week against Baltimore. The Patriots will have to take care of the football to win.
• The Giants figured out a way to slow down the Patriots offense in the first meeting, but they are just too good to expect it to happen the same way again. The Pats are tops in Drive Success Rate, our most important statistic to winning, converting a first down four times out of five. They are also at the top of the league in Yards per Drive, while the Giants defense ranks just 20th.
  
• The Patriots have been great inside the red zone, scoring three quarters of their total possible points, while the Giants have struggled a bit, ranking 21st in the league. In what looks to be a high scoring affair, if the Patriots have to settle for field goals, they won't survive like they did against the Ravens.
• The running game for the Patriots has been very good at getting the yards they need, but not much more, as they rank 23rd in Yards per Carry. I don't expect any of the Patriot running backs (or TEs) to have much of an impact running the ball. If they do, it'll be a great sign for New England.
• The Patriot Defense has played better the past two weeks than they did during the regular season, but by no means can they count on them to shut down the Giants offense. By my numbers, the Broncos game ranked in the 60th percentile of games this season, and it was their second best defensive game of the season. This isn't a Colts of 2006-style turn around. It's just a slight improvement on awful.
• Where can the Patriots Defense make an impact? Turnovers, where they been consistently good all year, and the Giants have had issues holding onto the football. They had two in the first meeting, including a muffed punt that completely flipped field position and led to the first Patriots points of the day, and a Manning interception that led to a touchdown. The Giants have only turned it over once in the playoffs, however.
• Manning had one of the best passing years in the league this season, ranking 4th in Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt, behind only the Packers, Patriots, and Saints, who all have pretty good QBs. The New England secondary has been picked on all season, and will have to play incredibly well to slow down the Giants passing attack.
• We should also expect some long drives by the Giants, as the Patriots rank dead last in several drive-related stats, while the Giants were a top 10 team offensively. I'd imagine one of their goals is to keep Tom Brady on the sidelines as much as possible, and you do that with long drives.
• With Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, it seems strange that the Giants struggled so much running the football this season, but they rank last in Yards per Carry, and just 22nd in RB Success rate. Bradshaw did not play in the first meeting this year, and Jacobs had 72 yards on 18 carries and a touchdown in that win over the Patriots. The running game will most likely be used more as a change of pace rather than a focus, so it'll be a nice bonus if they run well.

The previous four Patriot Super Bowls have all been decided by three points, so it makes a lot of sense why the spread for the game has been hovering around three for the entire two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. The Giants have been red-hot in the Playoffs, while the Patriots whipped an over-matched Broncos team and squeaked by against the Ravens. As the theme has been throughout the entire preview, Turnovers will tell the story. The team that wins the turnover battle will be crowned Super Bowl XLVI champions. I can't see New England turning it over four times again, and they'll almost certainly get better field position than the first time around, so I think that'll be the difference from their Week 9 game.

SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Patriots 31, Giants 28

Read More: super bowl 46, super bowl 46 preview, super bowl xlvi, nfl playoffs 2012, 2012 super bowl, super bowl prediction, super bowl 46 point spread, Billy Cundiff (K - BAL), Tom Brady (QB - NEP), Lee Evans (WR - JAC), Brandon Jacobs (RB - SFX), Eli Manning (QB - NYG), David Tyree (WR - BAL), Peyton Manning (QB - DEN), Ahmad Bradshaw (RB - NYG), Rob Gronkowski (TE - NEP), Jake Ballard (TE - NYG), New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Giants at New England Patriots, Feb 5, 2012 6:30 PM EST

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