For more on the Irish, check out One Foot Down, SB Nation's Notre Dame blog. For more on the Panthers, check out Cardiac Hill, SB Nation's Pittsburgh blog.
Sep 21, 2011 - It was a much more pleasant few days in South Bend for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish football team after getting their first victory of the season last Saturday, a 31-13 triumph over the Michigan State Spartans. While they still turned the ball over 3 times (bringing their season total to 13), the defense only allowed three points after those turnovers, helping the Irish get over that mental hurdle of closing a game out.
The Irish hit the road Saturday afternoon to face familiar foe Pittsburgh, who made headlines twice in two days last weekend. The first time was their game at Iowa last Saturday, where they blew a 17 point fourth quarter lead to lose by four to the Hawkeyes (this remind you of anything Irish fans?) Then, several rumors about the school moving to the Atlantic Coast Conference were confirmed Sunday morning, when the ACC announced that both Pittsburgh and Syracuse have been accepted as new members of the conference, bumping them up to 14 members. It's still unclear at this time when all this shifting will come to fruition, but we know the Panthers and Orange will be moving fairly soon.
Last season, the Panthers struggled in the Red Zone, leading to a 17-3 halftime lead for the Irish, but as most ND games seemingly go, Pitt clawed their way back in, and cut the lead to 23-17 halfway through the fourth quarter. The Irish defense stepped up both times Pittsburgh got the ball back after that, keeping the final score the same six point margin. This will be the eighth meeting between the two schools in the last 10 years, with the Irish having a 4-3 edge in those games. Overall ND leads the series 44-20-1, which started all the way back in 1909.
While the Panthers didn't have success at Notre Dame Stadium last season, their new Head Coach did. Todd Graham took over after former Irish Offensive Coordinator Mike Haywood was fired just 15 days on the job, when he was arrested on domestic violence charges, ironically enough in South Bend. Haywood had replaced Dave Wannstedt, who had been at Pittsburgh since 2005. Graham came from Tulsa, who defeated the Irish 28-27 last year. It was the first significant action for Irish QB Tommy Rees, who threw four TD passes, but also had three interceptions, including one in the end zone with just 20 seconds remaining in the game.
The biggest weapon for the Panthers is RB Ray Graham, who is averaging 140 yards per game on the ground in 2011, including over five yards per carry. Last week against Iowa he also caught six passes out of the backfield, making him a dual threat, and a guy Irish LB Manti Te'o to have his eye on throughout the day. Last season Graham had just eight carries for 44 yards, but shared duties with now Eagles RB Dion Lewis. The Irish will be ready for Graham, as they stuffed a potent Michigan State running attack last week, holding them to just 29 yards on 23 carries. The Panthers will have a tough time winning Saturday if they are held down like the Spartans were last week.
Under center for Pittsburgh is returning starter Junior Tino Sunseri, who has struggled with interceptions the last two games, throwing two in each of them. He was pretty accurate against Iowa last week, completing nearly 70% of his passes, but killed their final drive with an interception with 1:41 remaining, and the Hawkeyes ran out the clock after that. He's also been susceptible to getting sacked this season, 12 times in the first three games, which is great news for the Irish pass rushers, who were giving the MSU offensive line fits last week. Freshman DE Aaron Lynch had six QB hurries last week, including a sack, which were more QB hurries than any ND player had all of 2010. Expect Lynch to have two guys responsible for him at all times, and if he, or any other Irish player can get to Sunseri, things will look good for the Irish.
ND QB Tommy Rees played pretty well last week despite two more turnovers, one where he held onto the ball too long and fumbled after getting sacked, and an interception where had he lofted the pass just a little bit rather than thrown a dart, it would have been a touchdown to Tyler Eifert. He looked a lot more comfortable in the second half, throwing a perfect go-route pass to T.J. Jones for a touchdown in the third quarter that gave the Irish a 28-10 lead. Last season both Theo Riddick and Michael Floyd caught seven passes, so expect Rees to try and spread the ball around.
The Panthers defense has been great this season against the run, only allowing 2.4 yards per carry on the ground. The Irish have been gashing opposing defenses running the ball this season, especially in the first half of games, going well over five yards per carry. Where Pittsburgh has struggled this season is against the pass, where they've been torched this season. The Panther pass defense has allowed 276, 334, and 399 yards in their first three games, so it could be a big day for Rees and the passing game. Last season against the same Todd Graham coached defense, Rees threw for 334 yards, but much like this year, the turnovers killed ND's chance for winning.
Much like the first three weeks, Notre Dame looks to be the superior team in this matchup. Pittsburgh has had the same problems as ND has had closing games out, allowing two 4th quarter TDs to Maine, and FCS school, and the three TDs last week to Iowa. The Irish "only" turned it over three times last week and won comfortably, mostly because the defense stepped up and didn't allow any points after those turnovers. If the Irish play turnover-free football, I see no scenario where they lose on Saturday. However, as we've seen twice already this season, turning the ball over is the great equalizer.
SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Notre Dame 35, Pittsburgh 17
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