2011 NCAA Football: Fighting Irish Crush Purdue 38-10

The month of October kicks off with a bang in the state of Indiana, when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish travel to West Lafayette to take on the Purdue Boilermakers. The Irish lead the all-time series 52-26-2, but the two teams have had some very competitive games over the past 15 years inside Ross-Ade Stadium, with the Boilermakers winning four of the seven meetings. Notre Dame has won five of the last six games overall, including a 23-12 season-opening victory in South Bend a year ago. It was also ND Head Coach Brian Kelly's first game as Irish head coach.

Notre Dame has played one of the toughest schedules in the country so far, and if not for their own mistakes, could easily be 4-0, but sit at a disappointing 2-2 after four games. Last week the Irish scored a go-ahead touchdown midway through the 4th quarter to win 15-12 on the road against the Pittsburgh Panthers. They've had their issues hanging onto the ball, with a NCAA-high 15 turnovers in their first four games, which played a huge role in their first two losses. They have improved each week, only turning it over twice last week, but they added in some ill-timed penalties to make up for the turnovers.

Purdue comes in after a bye week at 2-1, including a 59-0 drubbing of SE Missouri State back on September 17th. The Boilermakers have benefited from a pretty easy opening schedule, where the only win by any of their three opponents came over Purdue, a 24-22 loss to Rice in Houston, when a Carson Wiggs 31 yard field goal attempt was blocked as time expired. Ironically, the Boilers held on to defeat Middle Tennessee in the seasons opening week after Ricardo Allen blocked a 47 yard field goal attempt that would have tied the game. Saturday night's tilt with the Irish will easily be their toughest test yet.

The biggest key to the game will be whether Purdue's rushing attack can continue its domination against a very good Irish run defense. They rushed for nearly 400 yards last time out against SEMS, scoring seven rushing touchdowns along the way and averaging 7.4 yards per carry. On the season, the Boilers are averaging 5.6 yards per carry, led by Ralph Bolden and Akeem Shavers, and rank 15th nationally in this category. The Notre Dame defense has been equally as good, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry, 25th nationally. They held Pittsburgh star running back Ray Graham to just 89 yards a week ago after coming into the contest gaining an average of 140 yards on the ground per game. NTs Sean Cwynar and Louis Nix have been space eaters in the middle, and LB Manti Te'o has again been superb filling gaps and making tackles. If the Irish can slow down the Purdue running game, or get them to stop running all together, it's going to be a long night for the home team.

Purdue Head Coach Danny Hope has named Caleb TerBush the starting QB for Saturday night, but expect Robert Marve, the starter in last year's game against Notre Dame, to get some playing time after playing in one series against SEMS. Both QBs have been efficient this year, completing 65% of their passes and throwing just one interception. They have taken 8 sacks this season, putting them at 96th in the country on a per game basis, which means the Boilermaker Offensive Line will definitely have their hands full. ND has 11 sacks already on the young season, and that's after playing against three "mobile" QBs. Freshman Aaron Lynch has been nearly unblockable the last two games, getting two sacks and seven QB hurries, and has been in the backfield on almost every play. LB Darius Fleming came off the edge for two sacks last week in Pittsburgh as well. Expect a lot of rollouts and quick passes to keep the Purdue QB upright.

On the flip side ND QB Tommy Rees is still looking for his first game of the season where he doesn't turn it over multiple times, and didn't look good at all until the Irish's final drive last week, leading them to the game-winning TD. Purdue will certainly look at how Pittsburgh effectively took All-American WR Michael Floyd out of the game, as he caught the first three passes from Rees, and the final one, but nothing in the 55 minutes in between. TE Tyler Eifert stepped up big, catching 8 balls for 75 yards and the GW Touchdown. Ricardo Allen should draw the assignment of Floyd, but look for one of the Purdue Safeties to always be helping over the top. The Irish have been great protecting Rees this season, only allowing 5 sacks in four games. Unfortunately, only once has Rees not fumbled when getting sacked, so if the Boilers can get to Rees, chances are the football will come free as well.

While Purdue has a whole stable full of Running Backs, Notre Dame has only used just two so far this season, Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray. Gray ripped off a 79 yard TD run last week, but only had three carries as Wood carried the load. They are averaging 5.8 yards per carry on the ground between the two of them, but are only averaging 27 carries per game between the two of them. ND Head Coach Brian Kelly has shown that he'll stop running the ball even if it effective, so forcing the Irish into being one dimensional will certainly help the Boilermaker defense.

The Irish may have one of the worst special teams units in the country, especially in the punting game, where they are ranked in the bottom 10 in three separate categories. If it weren't for a George Atkinson III kickoff return for a TD against Michigan State, it would be really easy to argue that they were the worst in the country. Purdue needs to take advantage by either causing a turnover (happened multiple times to the Irish this season), or returning a kick for a touchdown. The Notre Dame faithful will collectively be holding their breath each time the Special Teams units come onto the field.

Travis Miller over at Hammer and Rails is optimistic about Purdue's chances, but knows the Boilers need to force some turnovers to have a shot:

I don't see us winning this unless we pick off Rees at least three times and forced a fumble or two. Should we do that, we absolutely must take advantage of these mistakes. It is also clear to me that our running game works and we should be able to have some success there. That goes hand-in-hand with defeating their offense. It is hard for them to move the ball and score if they don't have it, so we should pound the rock and keep pounding it until they stop us. Their quick-strike offense with the no huddle is very dangerous. We can't allow it to get in a rhythm.

We desperately need an upset to erase the awful Rice loss. I would love for it to come this week and I think it can happen. Unfortunately, Notre Dame is the better team.  Unless they beat themselves, like they did in the first two weeks, they should win. Notre Dame 30, Purdue 17

Notre Dame has had no trouble at all moving the ball up and down the field against any of their opponents, yet always found a way to not score points. Conventional wisdom tells us at some point, the mental mistakes that led to all the turnovers have to stop at some point. Purdue certainly hopes that "some point" is after this Saturday. If the Irish can hold onto the football and not turn it over, they should win this game easily. However, until they actually show they can go a full game without a turnover, I can't assume it will happen. Look for Purdue to control the clock with their running game, and be in the game going into the fourth quarter. However, Rees always seems to convert that game-clinching drive, no matter how he's played before that, and the Irish come away with the victory.

SB Nation Indiana Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Purdue 16