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Jan 30, 2012 -
With the calendar about to turn from January to February it is time for college basketball teams around the country to settle into the home stretch. The critical "Final 10" games that the selection committee views has either already begun or is about to begin for most teams. In the state of Indiana, that usually means it is winning time.
The Hoosier State has had no trouble sending teams to the Big Dance of late. Last season Purdue, Notre Dame, Butler, and Indiana State entered the tournament. The Boilermakers have been to five straight NCAA Tournaments. Butler is also riding a streak of five appearances, while Notre Dame has been to four straight. Other schools, such as Evansville and Ball State are on a bit of a drought, but that doesn't mean they are done. There is always the magic of the conference tournament, where a hot week can erase four months of struggle.
This year it looks as if four teams look pretty solid, counting nearby Louisville, to make the field of 68. A few more could peak through with a solid finish. Here is how things look entering February.
NCAA Tournament Locks:
Indiana Hoosiers - 17-5, 5-5 Big Ten - The Hoosiers are safely in the field... for now. Their struggles on the road in the Big Ten have been well documented, and they have two very tough road games against Michigan and Purdue this coming week. Sunday's dominant win over Iowa at home was an offensive explosion, but if Indiana drops its next two away from Assembly Hall they could find themselves inching toward the bubble because 5-7 in the conference would not look good. ESPN's most recent bracketology has them playing as a five seed, down from an earlier two seed.
No one can question that the Hoosiers have the best two wins of anyone in the state over Kentucky and Ohio State. Those, and a home win over Michigan, will go a very long way towards keeping Indiana in the dance. What happens if a team that is already 5-5 slides to 8-10 in Big Ten play, however? It is possible with trips to Michigan, Purdue, Iowa, and Minnesota as well as dangerous home games against Illinois and Michigan State. In that unlikely event, Indiana had better when a game or two in Indianapolis just to feel totally safe.
The Hoosiers will likely be in regardless. It would take an unexpected collapse for them to miss the NCAA Tournament at this point. Four wins at minimum secures their place, and even three could be enough.
Louisville Cardinals - 17-5, 5-4 Big East - Yes, Louisville is not an Indiana team, but we cover them here regionally at the site, so I'll include them here.
Can anyone figure out the Cards? At one point they were a top 5 team, but an awful start in big East play saw them plummet. They have three straight wins over Pitt, Villanova, and Seton Hall to even out a bit. The joy of Big East play is that they get plenty of chances to improve their seed as well. Louisville gets to play No. 2 Syracuse twice, while home games against Rutgers, Pitt, and South Florida should be enough to have them locked in.
Like Indiana, it would take a serious collapse for Louisville to miss the tournament at this point. They are playing for a seed, and also like Indiana, it can fluctuate wildly based on their results against good remaining competition.
On the happy side of the bubble:
Purdue Boilermakers - 15-7, 5-4 Big Ten - As SB Nation's resident Purdue blogger I have ebbed and flowed with the fortunes of a team I cannot figure out. At times, Purdue can be very good, if not dominant, like they were in the second half of a Big Ten opening win over Illinois. They looked excellent for 30 minutes at Xavier, but an atrocious final ten led to a loss. The Boilers got a very important road win at Northwestern on Saturday, their third road victory in league play and second over a team they may be on the Bubble with in the conference.
Honestly, Purdue would be a lock today if not for inexplicable collapses against Xavier and Butler, as well as slow starts at home against Michigan and Wisconsin. Purdue is a troubling 0-4 against top 25 teams, but they are 4-5 against the top 50 in the RPI. If you slide that out to the top 55 they are 6-5 with wins over Miami (FL) and Iona as solid non-conference victories. In the Big Ten, only Ohio State (over Duke), Indiana (over Kentucky), and Purdue (over Temple) have non-conference wins over teams in the top 15 of the RPI.
Purdue has bad losses to Butler and Penn State, the former being a game in which they had a double-digit second half lead and the latter an ugly 20 point loss to the Big Ten's bottom team. If Purdue can regain its home court advantage and take at least four of its final five at home against Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Penn State it should be okay. Grabbing a road win at Michigan or Illinois (they've already beaten the Illini by 15) would be a good idea too. Unfortunately, nothing is guaranteed with this Purdue team. They could just as easily pull off a shocking upset at Ohio State as lose to Penn State at home by 20.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 14-8, 6-3 Big East - The Irish are one of the hottest teams at the moment, erasing some bad losses. Joe Lunardi has them as one of his Last Four In teams this week. The home win over Syracuse is a huge resume booster, as was a two-point win on Sunday at Connecticut. A double overtime win at Louisville is a third win over a ranked team, and at 6-3 in the Big East Notre Dame will be fine if it finishes with a winning Big East record. The losses to Georgia and Maryland are forgotten, while they receive no negative points form losing to Gonzaga and Indiana.
If 20 wins is the magical plateau, Notre Dame will get there. DePaul, Rutgers, West Virginia, and Providence should be home wins, while beating Marquette in South bend would be another quality win. Notre Dame also needs to win at St.. John's and Villanova to avoid a bad loss.
It really is simple for the Irish: They have played their way in already, now it is time to stay.
Conference Tournament or Bust:
Valparaiso Crusaders - 15-8, 8-3 Horizon League - Valpo won't get an at large bid, but they are only a half game out in the Horizon League and they have a win over leader Cleveland State. They won 72-66 at home against the Vikings, and that could come into play with the conference tournament. The No. 1 seed hosts the league tourney and the top 2 seeds receive a bye to the semi-finals. That means Valpo would be two home wins away from the NCAA Tournament if they win the Horizon League.
On February 9 Valpo heads to Cleveland State for what could be a huge conference game. Win that, and Valpo will be looking very good.
Ball St. Cardinals - 12-7, 4-3 MAC West - Jarrod Jones is having a season that is drawing the eye of NBA scouts, and an appearance in the NCAA Tournament could mean a second round draft selection for the Ball State forward. Unfortunately, Ball State would need to win the cannibalistic MAC tournament, which always seems to produce a surprise winner. As it stands now BSU is second in the West Division behind Eastern Michigan, but they lost to EMU 51-48 in Muncie already.
The Cards are the only team in the West that has an overall winning record, as Akron, Kent State, Ohio, and Buffalo are all battling in the East. Ball State finishes with five games against divisional opponents, so that is where their conference tournament seed will be decided.
Butler Bulldogs - 12-11, 6-5 Horizon - If Butler is going to go to a sixth straight NCAA Tournament they will have to do it the hard way, but never count them out. Butler was swept in Wisconsin this past weekend and is now 6-5, well off the pace in the Horizon League. Their best win is over Purdue, so there is no chance of an at large, but the Bulldogs have shown in the past they can get hot at the best time.
Indiana St. Sycamores - 13-9, 4-7 MVC - For awhile it looked like the Trees would be a viable at large candidate. They nearly upset Minnesota in the Old Spice Classic and had a not bad loss all the way out at Boise State. Then the MVC favorites got into the conference and lost seven of their first nine games. They've righted things a bit with wins over Northern Iowa and Evansville (in double overtime), but they are now six games back. Of course, last year no one thought they were a tournament team until they started cutting down the nets at Arch Madness with the MVC's auto-bid in hand.
Evansville Aces - 10-11, 5-6 -Evansville has now lost to Indiana State by two in Terre Haute and at home in double overtime. A stunning buzzer-beater at Illinois State and a one point loss to Wichita State were also painful losses, preventing the Aces from being 9-2 and near the top of the MVC. Right now they are hovering near the middle of the MVC, where a top 6 finish could get them a critical bye in Arch Madness. Once there, they could be this year's Indiana State. Colt Ryan ranks 8th nationally at 21 points per game for the Aces.
Longshots:
IPFW Mastodons - 10-11, 4-8 - It looks like this won't be the year IPFW gets off the schneid of being the only team from the state of Indiana to never play in the NCAA Tournament. The ‘dons are 4-8 in a weakened Summit League and would need a stunning run in the conference tournament to get in. Even then, they'd be hard pressed to avoid a trip to Dayton for the First Four.
IUPUI Jaguars - 8-15, 2-9 - The Jags seemed to get all their winning out of the way in one late December/early January 6-game winning streak. In that span they beat a pair of in-state foes in ball state and Valparaiso, but have lost seven straight since to fall to ninth in the Summit League. Senior Alex Young is having a solid final season in obscurity, averaging 20.6 points 6.1 rebounds, and 2.1 assists, good enough for 11th nationally in scoring. He recently scored the 2,000th point of his IUPUI career.
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